Ken Griffin has warned that a war over Taiwan could spark a new Great Depression.
The Citadel founder told CNBC that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have “catastrophic” consequences for both the American and Chinese economies.
“If there were a rupture around Taiwan, it would be catastrophic to both the Chinese and the American economy. And by catastrophic I think you’re looking at Great Depression circumstances,” Griffin told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” during the MFA Network conference in Miami on Tuesday.
The billionaire said that the US would face a drop in GDP of between 8% to 10% if it lost access to Taiwanese semiconductors, with the island producing reportedly around 90% of the world’s advanced microchip supply.
“If we lost access to Taiwanese semiconductors, how many weeks until Tesla stops making cars? Or GM? Or Ford? Or Boeing stops making planes? Those chips are used in every part of our economy,” Griffin told CNBC.
“It’s really important as a matter of national economic security that we’re able to maintain peace in that region of the world,” he added.
Tensions over Taiwan have been growing in recent months, with the self-governing nation recently electing pro-sovereignty candidate Lai Ching-te as president, likely angering Beijing.
China has always maintained that Taiwan is a breakaway province that will be reunited with the mainland, either peacefully or by force — and Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly reiterated that message to Joe Biden at a recent meeting.
Any war over Taiwan would be highly destructive and economically damaging, with Bloomberg forecasting that it could have a bigger impact on the US economy than the COVID-19 pandemic did if Washington were to be drawn into the conflict.
