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I celebrated Thanksgiving with American friends in London this week, some of whom had made their first trip back to the capital post-Covid. They were bemused to see how huge Black Friday has become over here, noting how Brits have imported the worst part — the bargain hunting — while ignoring the best bit — dinner with your nearest and dearest.
The arrival of Black Friday on these shores can be blamed on Amazon and Walmart, former owner of Asda supermarkets, who started the trend a decade ago. But the brands taking part in this annual discounting jamboree have ballooned — as has the duration.
Most retailers call it Black Friday Week, some Black November, and no doubt the discounting will continue until Christmas.
As the conversation moved around our Thanksgiving table, far from excitement about the bargains, I saw clear signs of Black Friday fatigue. Now largely an online phenomenon in the UK, canny brands have built up huge marketing databases by offering discounts to internet shoppers who register their details. Since Halloween, we have all been bombarded with texts, emails and in-app notifications offering “early bird access” to promotions, discount codes and all manner of temptations to spend.
It’s not just the retailers spamming us. Airlines, telecoms companies and gyms have been getting in on the act. I received a Black Friday email from my dentist offering 10 per cent off tooth whitening, and one from an investment platform claiming UK stocks are a bargain buy. Considering last month’s unexpectedly weak retail sales figures, some of these discounts are beginning to smack of desperation. Will they really entice online shoppers to splurge — or simply unsubscribe?
Lisa Hooker, leader of industry for consumer markets at PwC, attributes some of the hype to Black Friday falling later this year, meaning it coincides with payday for millions of British workers. If retailers know you have spent money with them in the past, they will be ferociously targeting a slice of your Black Friday spend.
“As the use of technology and data gets more sophisticated, retailers are getting cleverer about how they engage with shoppers, using our purchase history or browsing history,” she says.
This week, I clicked on a Black Friday email from my favourite clothes shop offering 25 per cent off all dresses. I didn’t see any I liked. Two hours later, I had another email: “Claer, can we tempt you to take another look?”
I felt as if I was being cyberstalked. But Kien Tan, senior retail adviser at PwC, says Gen Z customers are much more accepting of such prompts — and also much more likely to spend. However, according to his research, interest in Black Friday polarises UK shoppers, with half intending to buy something this year, and half set to shun it.
Overall, PwC expects Black Friday spending will rise to £7bn this year in the UK as cost of living pressures ease somewhat — still 10 per cent lower than pre-pandemic peaks. True success will be measured by how well price-slashing retailers are able to preserve their profit margins.
Targeted promotions as opposed to blanket store-wide discounts should help them in this quest. And smoothing out the Black Friday peak over several weeks or a month eases pressure on supply chain logistics, as well as the growing headache of processing online returns.
Nevertheless, I was surprised that men are predicted to be bigger Black Friday spenders than women this year. Tan says this is because men target high-value tech purchases for themselves, noting how releases of new gadgets, games and software tend to happen during the autumn (VR headsets are particularly sought-after this year). Women, meanwhile, are more inclined to start their Christmas shopping early, and spend money buying discounted gifts for others.
Black Friday refuseniks may well question whether some of these discounts are illusory. A study by consumer group Which? has found that nine out of 10 Black Friday deals offered by major retail groups in 2023 were available to buy at the same price or lower at other points in the year.
However, next year will be the real test for consumers and retailers alike. As the largest private sector employer in the UK, the retail industry has been howling about National Insurance increases in the Budget, which stand to wipe billions off the bottom line. Bosses warn they will have to pass on price rises to shoppers as well as cut jobs. If inflation and unemployment statistics start heading upwards, consumers are likely to pull their horns in further. The repercussions for the UK economy will not be cheerful. Be thankful for the bargains — and the bargain hunters — while they last.
Claer Barrett is the FT’s consumer editor; claer.barrett@ft.com; Instagram @Claerb
