I Got My Temu Order. but What Happens Next Time I Want Something?

If you haven’t been following my Temu saga, let me catch you up: I (reluctantly, and with appropriate shame) love Temu! I was nervous after President Donald Trump ended the loophole that lets it ship me cheap junk from China. But then I got my latest order — with no problems, delays, or extra fees.

So does that mean my Temu habit is safe?

I talked to a couple experts on world trade. They told me: Temu is probably safe for now, but over the long term, my relationship with Temu could come to a sad and screeching halt.

That’s because right now, Temu is shipping everything that US customers buy from US warehouses. That means those orders — like my one last week, for some children’s birthday party favors — avoided the extra fees Trump slapped on orders coming from China.

But pretty soon, those US warehouses are going to run out of stuff. Then what happens? The experts I talked to said that’s where things get tricky. Here are some potential outcomes:

• The US and China hammer out a trade agreement that lowers or ends tariffs, and Trump backpedals on his closing of the so-called de minimis loophole that allowed Temu — and Shein — to send stuff to the US directly from Chinese warehouses with no extra duty.
• Temu recruits companies to start storing millions of items in US warehouses to replenish the ones that will soon be empty.
• Temu somehow gets companies to make low-cost crap in countries aside from China that aren’t subject to as high of tariffs. (So that squirt gun that used to be made outside Beijing might now be made outside Hanoi, Vietnam.)

All of those things would be a huge change from how Temu does business now. Temu is a marketplace where sellers in China have warehouses full of stuff, and Temu is just the middleman, acting as a showroom for those wares to American customers. After US customers fill up their baskets, the sellers send orders directly from their warehouses to the US — exploiting the de minimis loophole that eliminates duties for packages sent directly to customers that have a value under $800. (That’s the loophole Trump closed.)

So getting a whole new army of sellers — this time in the US — would be a big lift. A Temu spokesman said that’s exactly what the company is doing — “actively recruiting US sellers to join the platform.”

“The move is designed to help local merchants reach more customers and grow their businesses,” the spokesman told BI. It’s not clear how the sellers would source the items they would sell. If they were made in China and imported for sale in the US, presumably, the seller would still have to pay a tariff — even if the end-customer avoided the de minimis fee.

And besides, I’m not sure US-based sellers will be able to offer the same ultra-low prices that Chinese sellers could. (If they can’t, shoppers like me might just head to Amazon.)

Temu will eventually run out of stuff in the US

Willy C. Shih, a professor at Harvard Business School who focuses on global supply chains and manufacturing, estimated that Temu might have enough stock to last through the summer, or a little beyond. “I’ve talked to some people who have enough inventory to last until the holiday season,” he said. “But, then, eventually they have to replenish.”

Yannis Bakos, an assistant professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business who focuses on e-commerce, said Temu and Shein are eventually going run out of runway — if tariffs don’t change.

“While some strategies may offer short-term relief, the long-term sustainability of their US operations is questionable if the tariffs remain,” Bakos said. “If they try to increase prices and move upmarket, it would be hard for them to compete with Amazon, so their likely best option would be to focus on increasing their growth into other markets, such as Europe.”

Already, Temu and Shein have boosted their advertising in Europe sharply in April, Reuters reported. It said local downloads there of the ultra-cheap shopping apps had risen, but that growth was slow.

Is this Temu’s new normal?

Still, Shih speculated there’s one last tactic for Temu — and for those who love it, like me: wait it out.

Eventually, the US and China will make some sort of trade deal, and the blisteringly high tariffs may ease up. Will this happen anytime soon? It could be a risky move putting too much hope into this basket after Trump said little girls might just need to live with two dolls instead of 30 this Christmas.

After all, he might actually believe Americans need to break their culture of consumption. (How much you take that at face value is up to you.)

As for me? I got my last Temu order, cheap and quick. And what is more American than being satisfied with “I got mine?” What happens next time … I’m not sure.