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Which is hotter: a Burberry trenchcoat or a sausage roll? Britons’ hunger for Greggs was previously so healthy that the UK bakery chain was worth more than the British purveyor of luxury goods by market capitalisation in mid-2024.
Burberry has admittedly had its problems. But appetites now appear to be waning for Greggs, too. Like-for-like sales growth cooled to 1.7 per cent in the first nine weeks of 2025, Greggs said on March 4. That was down from 2.5 per cent in the three months ending December. Its shares have dropped more than 40 per cent in the past 6 months, underperforming other takeaway food groups such as SSP.
The flakiness can partly be blamed on market conditions. The wider “food on the go” market is not growing. Consumers remain jittery over their finances. Yet other indicators raise the prospect that Britain might be approaching the unthinkable: peak sausage roll.
Greggs started out in 1939 delivering baked goods door-to-door in Newcastle. It has built such a place in some Britons’ hearts that it has catered celebrity weddings.
In 2021, it published aggressive expansion plans to reach more than 3,000 UK stores. By the end of December, the tally stood at 2,618, after 145 net openings in 2024. Some 140-150 more will follow this year. Greggs will soon dwarf other ubiquitous food and coffee brands such as Costa Coffee, owned by Coca-Cola, which has 2,800 coffee shops in the UK and Ireland combined.
A Panmure Liberum analysis of UK shop density suggests Greggs might want to revisit such a rapid rollout — or at least trim more outlets in its traditional strongholds of the north of England and central Scotland. There are roughly 27,000 potential customers per Greggs outlet, according to the estimates, the lowest number per shop of the seven brands examined, including Pret A Manger and McDonald’s.
Greggs’ CEO Roisin Currie says there is no evidence of new stores eating into existing outlets’ sales. There are still geographies and locations where Greggs is under-represented, she argues. That may be so. Yet even if investors buy that this is a cyclical slowdown, there are other reasons to consider a leaner diet.
Before last year, Greggs had enjoyed three years of extraordinary, double-digit like-for-like revenue growth. A return to that is unlikely, analyst forecasts from VisibleAlpha suggest. Same-store sales are slowing and expenses are rising, in part because of higher employment costs — even as expansion threatens to soak up cash.
Nearly 90 years of history suggest UK consumers’ appetite for steak bakes and sausage rolls is durable, even if food fads come and go. But for Greggs, as for its loyal customers, moderation is a virtue.
nathalie.thomas@ft.com
