EU leaders demand bloc get serious about ‘life and death’ support to Ukraine

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Good morning. Today, I explain the plea from five EU leaders for the bloc to finally get serious on joint efforts to arm Ukraine, and our man in the Balkans reports on Serbia’s potential move to reinstate military conscription.

Less conversation, more action

The EU has not met its promises to Ukraine and needs to get serious, right now, about arming Kyiv sufficiently to defeat Russia. That’s the message from five EU leaders in a joint letter to the Financial Times this morning.

Context: Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU has provided financial and military support to Kyiv worth around €68bn. But flows of weaponry and cash have dwindled, and proposals to renew both are stuck.

Both these issues will be on the agenda of an emergency EU leaders’ summit in Brussels tomorrow.

“Ukraine has insufficient amounts of artillery ammunition. And commitments for military support risk falling short of Ukraine’s needs,” write German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and three other EU leaders in their letter.

They point to a promise to supply Ukraine with 1mn artillery rounds before the end of March 2024. “The hard truth: we have fallen short of this goal,” they write.

The authors, who also include Czech, Estonian and Dutch premiers Petr Fiala, Kaja Kallas and Mark Rutte, say “our ability to continue to support and sustain Ukraine’s defence . . . is a matter of our common European security, and for the brave women and men of the Ukrainian armed forces a question of life and death.”

EU countries are haggling over an update to the bloc’s European Peace Facility, which helps pay for weapons. On the table is a €5bn increase to its size, and a move to shift from reimbursing countries’ shipments of weapons stocks to Ukraine, to financing for armament production.

Either route is fine, the letter’s authors state: “The ways are less important. The ends and means are critical . . . We will continue to explore all options and invite allies and partners to co-fund initiatives.”

But the sense of urgency is paramount, they add, “because new orders we place today will only reach the battlefield by next year”.

And there is a message to other countries, most notably France, that have argued against allowing non-EU countries to participate in joint production efforts.

“Partner countries could play an important role as well and are invited to join in our collective effort,” the authors state.

Chart du jour: Flatlined

Germany’s post-pandemic growth rebound has flatlined, a key factor in data that showed the eurozone economy stalled in the last quarter of 2023, despite improved figures from Italy and Spain.

Vučić wants you

Serbia is considering reintroducing military conscription over a decade after scrapping it, a sign that the country with the largest military in the Western Balkans wants to reverse years of erosion of its forces, writes Marton Dunai.

Context: Serbia, an EU candidate country, has rarely seen eye to eye with western allies, maintaining close ties with Russia and China and refusing to join western sanctions following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

At the same time, Belgrade has been at the centre of regional conflicts in the Western Balkans, including on the status of breakaway neighbour Kosovo, which it does not recognise as a sovereign country, and the cohesion of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

One of the largest weapons producers in eastern Europe, Belgrade has beefed up its military capabilities, buying technology from China and elsewhere. But the professional armed forces have lost thousands of staff in recent years.

President Aleksandar Vučić told local media during a military show in Belgrade yesterday that the army’s general staff and the ministry of defence had “convincingly” argued to resume conscriptions. He asked them to present proposals by May.

“We are not threatening anyone,” Vučić said. “Today, if you don’t have [a strong] army, you don’t have a country.”

The Ukraine war has forced many European countries to build up their military capabilities and revamp their forces, with states including Germany pondering whether to reintroduce mandatory military service in some form, despite criticism.

In Serbia, critics said Belgrade might struggle to pay for a build-up while most of its Balkan neighbours were already Nato members and would have superior capacities in case of a potential conflict.

What to watch today

1. EU leaders arrive in Brussels for an informal pre-summit dinner.

2. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo speak at the Val Duchesse Social Partners Summit, from 1.00pm.

3. Meeting of the college of European commissioners.

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