EU debates return to Russian gas as part of Ukraine deal

Today’s agenda: Trump’s anti-green offensive; Meta sticks with big AI bet; an ‘Iron Dome for America’; lessons from Bill Gross; and has Mistral AI missed its moment?

Good morning. We start today with an exclusive story on the revival of the debate on reopening Russian gas pipelines as part of the Ukraine deal. Here’s what we know.

What are the key arguments for it? Advocates of buying Russian gas contend it would bring down high energy prices in Europe, encourage Moscow to the negotiating table, and give both sides a reason to implement and maintain a ceasefire. The EU’s stated target is to rid the bloc’s energy system of all Russian fossil fuels by 2027. But the dire straits of EU’s heavy industries have increased the need for cheaper energy, with gas costs in Europe typically three to four times higher than in the US.

What do opponents say? Raising the idea of reopening gas sales, which had been endorsed by some German and Hungarian officials, has already sparked a backlash among Ukraine’s closest EU allies, many of whom have spent the past three years working to reduce Russian energy imports into the bloc. Resuming exports to Europe would also significantly boost Moscow’s revenues. “It’s madness,” said an official. “How stupid could we be to even think about that as an option?” Read the full story.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: The EU, France, Germany and the US publish fourth-quarter GDP estimates. The EU also has December unemployment data.

• EU monetary policy: The European Central Bank is expected to cut its key interest rate by a quarter point. See our tracker of policy rates around the world.

• Companies: Apple, Deutsche Bank, Glencore, Mastercard, Shell and Visa are among those reporting. See our Week Ahead newsletter for the full list.

Five more top stories

1. Exclusive: Donald Trump eliminated more than 70 climate and green energy initiatives in his first week of office, according to a Financial Times analysis of the new president’s executive orders. The sweeping move upended federal commitments and targets aimed at combating climate change, limiting oil and gas development and accelerating the clean energy buildout.

2. Exclusive: SoftBank is in talks to invest up to $25bn into OpenAI, a deal that would make it the biggest financial backer of the ChatGPT maker. The ambitious gambit by Masayoshi Son is the centrepiece of a broader strategy to fulfil his self-stated mission to bring about so-called “superintelligence”. Here’s what we know about the deal.

3. Car production at British plants fell back below 1mn vehicles, the worst annual drop since the Covid-19 pandemic, figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders showed. Industry executives said of the decline, which came on falling exports and winding down of production of older models, that “growing pains are inevitable”.

• Stellantis’s US reset: John Elkann, the Fiat and Jeep owner’s new chief, is ready to unlock more than $5bn of investments in the US as the company builds closer ties to Trump.

4. TotalEnergies failed to convince Joe Biden’s team to approve financing for its $20bn LNG development in Africa, which now faces paralysis after a half in 2021 following an Islamist insurgency. The project, which became the largest foreign direct investment project in the continent when financing was secured in 2020, could face “additional and lengthy delays”, the oil group’s chief Patrick Pouyanné had warned the outgoing administration.

5. A passenger jet carrying 64 people and a military helicopter collided near Reagan National Airport outside Washington late on Wednesday, the US Federal Aviation Administration said. The regional flight, operated by PSA Airlines for American Airlines, and a US Army Black Hawk helicopter collided around 9pm. Read the latest developments.

The Big Read

Just last year, Mistral was hailed as a potential global leader in AI technology. But this week, China’s DeepSeek stunned Silicon Valley by releasing a cutting-edge open-source model with what it claims is a tiny fraction of OpenAI or Meta’s resources and computing power — beating the French start-up at its own game. Has Europe’s great hope for AI missed its moment?

We’re also reading . . . 

Chart of the day

Findings by MSCI show commercial property investment started to recover from a two-year slump towards the end of 2024, as investors turned to sectors such as residential and continued to avoid office buildings, amid hopes of a real estate market recovery.

Take a break from the news . . . 

Pietro Beccari, Louis Vuitton’s chief executive, is betting that the label’s sole title sponsorship of Formula One will help it evolve from a fashion brand into a “cultural” one. “Sport is part of the culture, the life of young people,” he said of the nearly €100mn a year, decade-long tie-up.