Bitcoin is on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022, with prominent venture capitalists warning that the downturn has only just started.
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske declared that “the era of DAT selling has only begun, just as we went up, so too will we go down,” while Alliance DAO co-founder QwQiao predicted the next bear market will require another 50% drop before a strong foundation can form.
The largest crypto slid as much as 6.4% to $81,629 on Friday, shedding about 23% of its value in November, the most in a single month since June 2022.
Bitcoin has plummeted over 30% from its record high set in early October despite a pro-crypto White House and surging institutional adoption, with liquidations reaching $1.9 billion, surpassing both the COVID crash and FTX collapse.
Veteran Investors Signal Extended Downturn Ahead
Burniske’s bearish stance gained traction after he warned on October 17 that the last Oct 10 massacre broke crypto for a while, making it hard to quickly build a sustained bid after such a meltdown.
He noted that while Bitcoin and Ethereum remain in elevated ranges, cracks are showing, with MicroStrategy slipping and gold sending warnings alongside credit markets.
Alliance DAO’s QwQiao has also previously reinforced this pessimism by reiterating his September prediction that a large cohort of “dumb money” buying spot and ETFs will need to liquidate positions before the market can resume its supercycle.
One observer pointed out that IBIT’s cost basis sits at $80,500, warning of massive acceleration in ETF outflows and market dumping by zombie companies, with IBIT’s floor unlikely to mark the bear market bottom.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt also offered a contrarian long-term view, stating that this dumping is the best thing that could happen to Bitcoin.
While still holding 40% of his maximum position at a price one-twentieth of Michael Saylor’s average buy, Brandt predicted the next bull market should take Bitcoin to $200,000 by Q3 2029.
Institutional Retreat and Forced Selling Pressure
The selling pressure intensified dramatically, with a group of 12 US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds seeing $903 million in net outflows on Thursday—their second-largest single-day redemption since debuting in January 2024.
According to Bloomberg, open interest in perpetual futures has fallen 35% from its October peak of $94 billion, while institutions appear reluctant to buy the dip amid incredibly poor sentiment across the board.
The rout follows a crippling bout of liquidations on October 10 that wiped out $19 billion in leveraged token bets, erasing roughly $1.5 trillion from the combined market value of all cryptocurrencies.
Ether fell as much as 7.6% to below $2,700, with liquidations surpassing $1 billion across multiple timeframes, the latest spike nearly hitting $1 billion in just one hour.
Pratik Kala, portfolio manager at Apollo Crypto, noted there appears to be a forced seller in the market with unclear depth.
“Sentiment across the board is incredibly poor,” he said.
Market Breakdown and Historical Pattern Recognition
Analyst Michael Van De Poppe identified the turning point, stating, “something broke down terribly on the 10th of October,” which remains visible in current Bitcoin market behavior.
The implosion of Do Kwon’s TerraUSD stablecoin project in May 2022 sparked a daisy chain of corporate failures that culminated in FTX’s downfall, which was the last time Bitcoin experienced comparable monthly losses.
Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Crypto, reminded investors that “bear markets are normal,” noting “Bitcoin has always topped in Q4 of the post-halving year and then bottomed approximately one year later.”
He advised traders to “trade the market you have, not the market you want” as all sorts of narratives circulate.
Analyst Plan C presented a long-term Bitcoin model with 99.72% accuracy at the lower end, designed to provide multiple possible outcomes rather than a single price prediction.
The model shows Bitcoin’s volatility narrowing over time, though where prices fall within the projected range depends on external market factors and investor psychology.
The broader market backdrop offered little support, with US stocks surrendering AI-driven gains amid concerns over stretched valuations and doubts about a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.
The wider crypto sector faces mounting pressure as the bear market unfolds, with no clear bottom in sight.
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