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    Home»Economy»Did the United States grow its way out of WWII debt?
    Economy

    Did the United States grow its way out of WWII debt?

    Press RoomBy Press RoomAugust 24, 2025No Comments1 Min Read
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    Not as much as you might think:

    ABSTRACT: The fall in the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974 is often attributed to high rates of economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951. Our central result is a simulation of the path that the debt/GDP ratio would have followed with primary budget balance and without the distortions in real interest rates caused by surprise inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history. Moreover, the ratio starts rising again in 1980 and in 2022 it is 84%. These findings imply that, over the last 76 years, only a small amount of debt reduction has been achieved through growth rates that exceed undistorted interest rates.

    That is from a recent paper by Julien Acalin and Laurence Ball.  Via the excellent Samir Varma.

    The post Did the United States grow its way out of WWII debt? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.



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