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David Pokima
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Crypto markets ended 2025 with a paradox: prices declined while usage metrics surged to all-time highs.
Bitwise’s latest research data show ETH dropped 29% in Q4 2025, even as Ethereum transactions reached new peaks. The asset manager’s CIO, Matt Hougan, noted that this disconnect has appeared before at major inflection points. Markets often bottom when participants lose interest just as adoption quietly improves.
The divergence is striking. Crypto equities fell 20% in 2025 while industry revenues grew at triple the rate of any other sector. Bitwise’s Q1 2025 review documented Ethereum’s 45% price decline alongside a 30.14% surge in transaction volume and tokenized real-world assets hitting all-time highs.
Stablecoin Flows Tell a Different Story
The stablecoin market crossed $300 billion in October 2025. Daily average transaction volume reached $3.1 trillion, according to an October 2025 Arkham Research report.
TRON exemplifies the usage-price disconnect. The network ended 2025 with over $81 billion in stablecoin supply, with USDT accounting for 99% of that figure. Messari data show average daily USDT transfer volume hit $23.8 billion by Q4. TRON processed approximately $6-7 trillion in stablecoin transactions annually, commanding 65% of global retail USDT transfers under $1,000.
Network revenue tells the same story. TRON achieved $1.2 billion in Q3 2025 revenue, an all-time high. Yet TRX spent much of 2025 consolidating around $0.28.
DeFi Outpacing Centralized Venues
Decentralized exchange volume has structurally outpaced centralized competitors. CoinDesk data from August 2025 showed daily DEX volume at $12.8 billion versus Coinbase’s $3.5 billion. Uniswap alone processes between $1-2 billion daily across supported chains, commanding a 55% DEX market share.
Uniswap v4 achieved $1 billion TVL within 177 days of launch. The protocol generated over $985 million in fees year-to-date through October 2025. Coinbase responded by integrating DEX trading directly into its app, routing orders through aggregators like 0x and 1inch to access Uniswap liquidity.
The Q1 2023 Parallel
Bitwise’s analysis draws a direct comparison to Q1 2023, when similar conditions preceded a two-year bull run. That quarter saw blockchain revenues climb 139% quarter-over-quarter while Ethereum transactions hit all-time highs.
The current setup mirrors that period: falling prices, improving fundamentals, and capital quietly accumulating through stablecoin rails.
Current Market Snapshot
ETH is currently trading at $2,954.29, consolidating near its 200-day EMA around $3,200-$3,300. The asset sits 39% below its all-time high of $4,946.
Hougan’s thesis hinges on three checkpoints for a rally in 2026, with one already achieved. The structural case rests on staking locking roughly 30% of the ETH supply, fee burns reducing issuance, and Layer 2 expansion sustaining network activity.
For traders weighing the data against the price action, the question is timing. Fundamental strength without price follow-through can persist for quarters. But when adoption curves accelerate while valuations compress, the gap eventually closes. The direction of that convergence is what 2026 will determine.
