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Ahmed Balaha
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Citigroup just cut its 12-month Bitcoin price target. Down from $143,000 to $112,000.
Strategist Alex Saunders is pointing at one core problem. The regulatory catalysts markets were counting on after the election are running behind schedule. The legislative window to unlock the next wave of ETF-driven demand is closing faster than anyone priced in.
Bitcoin is stuck consolidating below $90,000. The six-figure target is still on the table. But the path there just got a lot flatter.
Key Takeaways:
- Citigroup lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $112,000 from $143,000 and its Ethereum target to $3,175 from $4,304.
- Analysts cite a narrowing window for U.S. crypto legislation in 2025 as the primary driver for reduced institutional adoption forecasts.
- The revised outlook suggests regulatory catalysts needed to drive fresh ETF inflows may not materialize until late 2026.
Citigroup Revises Targets Amid Legislative Stalls
The revision signals a clear cooling of the post-election Trump trade euphoria that had Wall Street buzzing late last year.
Citigroup also slashed its Ethereum target. Down from $4,304 to $3,175. The second largest asset is not immune to the regulatory slowdown either.
Saunders put it plainly. The window for US crypto legislation this year is narrowing. Without clear frameworks on market structure and stablecoins, the institutional capital markets expected to flood in during Q1 stays on the sidelines.
For context, Citi’s bull case had previously modeled targets as high as $189,000. That scenario was contingent on rapid policy shifts. Those shifts have not materialized.
Market Context: Do Flows Support the Cut?
Citi is cautious. BlackRock just bought $600 million in BTC anyway.
That divergence tells you everything. While the bank worries about regulatory timelines, the largest asset managers are focused on long-term supply constraints and treating current prices as an accumulation zone.
Large Bitcoin wallets have resumed accumulation according to Santiment, absorbing sell pressure from short term holders. That pattern typically precedes price expansion. But without the legislative green light Citi is waiting for, that expansion gets pushed further into 2026.
Bull case: reclaim $92,000 on high volume and the bearish thesis gets invalidated. Path to $112,000 opens up. Needs ETF inflows to reverse and ideally a dovish signal from the Fed.
Bear case: lose $84,000 and $72,000 to $70,000 comes into view. Congressional gridlock confirms the narrative drought and price drifts toward lower liquidity zones. Citi’s own bearish target sits at $78,500.
The number to watch is ETF flow data. Inflows stay stagnant and $112,000 looks optimistic. Billion dollar inflow weeks return and the old $143,000 target comes back into play.
Right now the market is waiting for Washington to decide which scenario it wants to hand crypto.
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