China’s National People’s Congress set for high-tech and low growth

Hello and welcome to the working week.

The next seven days are set to be dominated by the conflict in the Middle East following the attacks on Iran over the weekend and the political fallout from the death of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Against a backdrop like that the rest of the week’s events are bound to be a little less dramatic, but the UK Labour government seems determined to go a step further and embrace the humdrum this week.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to make an uneventful economic statement on Tuesday, as she seeks to portray embattled Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s government as dull but worthy — a tough task made tougher after Labour’s by-election loss of the safe seat of Gorton and Denton to the Greens on Friday.

Still, a better than expected tax take at the start of the year has given Reeves a fiscal boost, and the key message for business will be “here’s a stability dividend” thanks to competent economic management. Watch out for the fiscal headroom figure and talk of declining migration carving a hole in the public finances.

China’s economic announcement could be a lot more interesting, though not necessarily in a good way. The bottom end of the target range for growth could end up at its lowest in decades when the country’s rubber-stamp parliament begins its annual meeting in Beijing on Thursday.

Analysts expect a target of 4.5-5 per cent to be unveiled at the National People’s Congress, compared with last year’s goal of “around 5 per cent”. The meeting is also set to launch the country’s latest five-year plan, and its expected high-tech focus is stoking fears that Beijing is set to continue its takeover of global industry using state-backed policies and subsidies to supercharge Chinese manufacturing. 

The economic data run is fairly thin this week, but there will be international economic comparisons from the latest purchasing managers’ index reports for the service sector and (for European countries) construction. Employment is a theme, with updates from the EU on Wednesday and the US on Friday.

As we approach the end of earnings season the focus will be on US retail, providing a guide to the state of consumer spending, insurance and UK housebuilders. More details below.

One more thing . . . 

This is set to be a landmark year for famous centenarians, or rather one hopes it will, with the likes of broadcaster Sir David Attenborough and comedian Mel Brooks both reaching three figures in the coming months. Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan turns 100 on Friday. Time to re-read this FT review of Sebastian Mallaby’s 2016 biography.

Are you filled with joy at such people living long lives? What is the best way to commemorate a significant birthday? Email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this from your inbox, by hitting reply. However you are spending the next few days, have a good week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• OECD Financial Markets Week Spring 2026 begins in Paris, with senior government officials, central bankers and financial regulators meeting to discuss recent market developments and new policy proposals.

• Bank of Japan deputy governor Ryozo Himino speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Wakayama.

• MWC Barcelona, the largest mobile telecoms event in the world, opens at the city’s main conference space Fira Gran Via, running until Thursday.

• Brazil, Canada, China, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.

• Turkey: Q4 GDP estimate.

• UK: Nationwide February House Price index.

• Earnings calls: Bank of Ireland FY, Bunzl FY, The Craneware Group HY, GlobalData FY, Oxford Nanopore Technologies FY, Sealed Air Q4/FY, Senior FY, Smith & Nephew FY, Tristel HY.

Tuesday

• Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock speaks at the AFR Business Summit in Sydney.

• Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the FIN/SUM 2026 fintech summit in Tokyo.

• Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis president Neel Kashkari speaks at the Bloomberg Invest event in New York.

• EU: flash February Eurozone harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate estimate.

• India: Financial markets closed for Holi, festival of colours, love and spring.

• Japan: January labour force survey.

• UK: British Retail Consortium Shop Price index.

• Earnings calls: AutoZone Q2, Beiersdorf FY, Best Buy Q4/FY, CrowdStrike Holdings Q4/FY, Greggs FY, Johnson Service Group FY, Keller FY, Kier HY, Progressive Q4/FY, Reach FY, Ross Stores Q4/FY, Target Q4/FY, Thales FY

Wednesday

• Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem is interviewed for a fireside chat at the Global Risk Institute in Toronto

• Australia: December/Q4 GDP estimate

• Brazil, Canada, China, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global services PMI data

• EU: January unemployment figures

• India: Financial markets closed for Holi, festival of colours, love and spring.

• US: Federal Reserve Beige Book published

• Earnings calls: Adidas FY, Bath & Body Works Q4/FY, Broadcom Q1, Brown-Forman Q3, Continental FY, Galliford Try HY, George Weston Q4/FY, Mercedes-Benz annual report, Metro Bank FY, Quilter FY, Scor Q4/FY, SIG FY, Symrise FY, Vistry Group FY, Weir Group FY

Thursday

• Claer Barrett, FT consumer editor, is running a free Financial Wellbeing Reset lunchtime webinar at 1pm GMT, in association with the FT’s Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign charity. Sign up here

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Austan Goolsbee will deliver brief, non-policy-related remarks at the start of the Foreign Policy Association’s financial services dinner.

• British tech manufacturer Nothing launches Phone (4a) Series smartphone.

• EU: European Central Bank publishes minutes from last rate-setting meeting

• Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK: S&P Global construction PMI data.

• France: January industrial production indices.

• Earnings calls: Admiral FY, Aviva FY, Coats FY, Ibstock FY, ITV FY, PageGroup FY, Reckitt Benckiser FY, Rentokil Initial FY, Serco FY, Taylor Wimpey FY

Friday

• Asean-Japan Economic Resilience Initiative Symposium meets in Tokyo.

• Germany: January manufacturing indices.

• UK: Halifax House Price Index.

• US: February employment figures.

• Earnings calls: Lufthansa FY, Royal London Group FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Jewish holiday of Purim, remembering the time of the biblical character Esther, begins this evening, continuing tomorrow.

• France: Paris Fashion Week begins.

• UK: Public accounts committee hearing on the Bank of England’s real-time gross settlement renewal programme, with evidence from the Bank’s deputy governor Dave Ramsden, its chief information officer Nathan Monk and chief cashier Victoria Cleland.

Tuesday

• A total lunar eclipse is expected to be visible over large parts of Asia, Australia, Pacific Islands and the Americas, as the Earth passes directly between the sun and moon.

• UK: Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her Spring Statement to parliament, while the Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its latest economic and fiscal outlook, giving forecasts for the economy and the public finances.

• US: Texas primaries election day, where voters will choose nominees for Senate midterm elections in November as well as statewide offices including governor, lieutenant-governor, comptroller and attorney-general. Four seats on the Texas Supreme Court are also up for election, along with all 150 seats in the Texas House and 16 seats in the Texas Senate. It follows a Supreme Court ruling last year, allowing a Texas electoral map that favours Republicans.

Wednesday

• EU: European Commission expected to announce details of its troubled “Made in Europe” plan, delayed by disagreements in the scope of the scheme.

Thursday

• China: National People’s Congress annual session for the country’s top legislature opens in Beijing, with Premier Li Qiang delivering a government work report and an update on the economy.

• Nepal: parliamentary elections.

• UK: St Piran’s Day, commemorating the patron saint of Cornwall. Communities secretary Steve Reed last year told Cornwall Council leaders the Westminster government is considering a devolution settlement for the English county to reflect its distinctive place within the UK.

Friday

• Italy: The Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Paralympic Games officially begin with the opening ceremony in Arena di Verona, a first-century Roman amphitheatre.

• Japan: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney begins a two-day visit, including a working dinner with his Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi.

• US: 100th birthday of American economist and former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan.

Saturday

• Japan: IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva visits Japan.

• US: private “homegoing” services for human rights campaigner and politician Jesse Jackson after yesterday’s public memorial in Chicago. Jackson died on February 17, aged 84.

Sunday

• UN International Women’s Day.

• Colombia: parliamentary elections.

• UK: Crufts dog show in Birmingham reaches its climax with the presentation of the Best in Show award to the prize pooch.

• US: Daylight Saving Time begins with clocks going forward one hour in each state except Hawaii and Arizona, which do not observe daylight saving time.