Are better days ahead? (London’s Stock Exchange)
In the unpredictable world of stock markets, success often lies in your ability to outperform the market by zeroing in on rising trends running against the general flow of trading, ensuring your portfolio thrives when the market rises and doesn’t suffer excessive losses during downturns. This principle has held true, particularly for investors trying to make profits in the face of the stagnant market performance of the U.K.’s FTSE 100 over the last 25 years.
The FTSE’s Stagnation
For a quarter of a century, the FTSE has shown little progress, leaving investors pondering their strategies. Despite this, proponents of value and contrarianism have managed to navigate these turbulent waters with relative success especially if they have been able to dodge the bullet in the periodic crashes that reset the FTSE 100. However, recent times have presented a challenge with investors finding it nearly impossible to make a return.
Fortunately, a glimmer of hope has emerged. Value portfolios have begun to display resilience, outperforming the market during rallies and avoiding significant losses during market declines. This positive development is partly attributed to the changing market dynamics, driven by factors such as decreasing inflation, anticipated lower interest rates and the impending injection of liquidity into the market to fund government deficits, which although not yet muted is likely to be primarily through old-school quantitative easing (QE).
One issue plaguing the U.K. stock market is its perceived fragility. It has been criticized as “broken,” a sentiment shared by many industry insiders. However, there is a hope that this sentiment may shift as the acute need for action is understood and grasped, coupled with the long term possibility that the global economy is on the mend.
If this shift doesn’t occur, there is the looming possibility of a takeover frenzy of the core blue chip listed stocks as they are taken over by private equity and asset stripped. While this scenario may be concerning to some, for value investors it will be a pay day, with no one able to blame them for staking out the victims of the U.K.’s mishandling of one of its core economic structures.
To truly grasp the value hidden in the market, one must account for inflation. When adjusting the FTSE for inflation, the results are nothing short of staggering. The FTSE’s current adjusted levels hovers around 4,000, nearly mirroring its position during the Dotcom crash’s darkest days. Such a revelation underscores the depths of despair the U.K. market has plunged into, with industry veterans remarking on the unprecedented challenges they face.
The FTSE 100 adjusted for inflation
However, in adversity, there lies opportunity. For those who seek it, this could be a buying opportunity like no other.
While the overall market outlook may seem bleak, income investors can still find reasons for optimism. Despite the market’s woes, dividend yields remain extremely attractive, offering mouthwatering returns. With inflation on the decline and expectations of falling interest rates, income investors may get a capital bump at the same time as a strong flow of dividends.
The fate of interest rates is a topic of keen interest for investors. Will they plummet to zero? Probably not given the U.K.’s substantial need to issue gilts to fund its yawning deficit. The Bank of England is unlikely to absorb this, leading to the expectation that interest rates will remain high enough to attract proper third-party investors. Nevertheless, quantitative easing will play a significant role in absorbing the excess debt under whatever guise it is cloaked, which will bump up liquidity in general.
This combination of factors could lead to a scenario of moderate inflation, interest rates around 3% and fresh capital flowing into equities while supporting housing prices. Additionally, a recovery lasting 2-4 years seems on the cards, offering a way out from economic stagnation.
A takeover wave in on the cards. I’ve predicted this for many months but now it at last seems to be happening. For now it seems the focus on M&A is for low risk, friendly deals, as you would expect at the beginning of a new trend. It will take time and success for the scene to get more energic, but with the profits so potentially lucrative and the system so hungry for activity, that will come.
Companies offering substantial dividends are attractive targets for acquisition. As a result, an increase in takeovers is expected with a surge in 2024. Investors holding these takeover targets will make great returns.
After years of bearish sentiments, the future appears clearly. The market’s resilience, hidden value, income opportunities and changing economic landscape signal better days ahead for investors in the U.K. stock market. However, it remains essential to remain vigilant and adaptable in these dynamic financial markets because there will be little room to relax in what will remain a fragile market.
