Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will Today’s FOMC Rate Cut to 4.25% Spark the Next Big Move?

Bitcoin is holding around $116,200 on Wednesday as the Fed gears up for its first rate cut of 2025. The FOMC is widely expected to trim rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target down to 4.25%. That move — and Powell’s comments right after — could be the spark that decides whether BTC rips toward $130K or slips back toward $114K.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technicals: Rising Wedge and Key Levels

Bitcoin is testing a critical zone as price action consolidates just below $117,300. On the 30-minute chart, the structure has formed a rising wedge, a pattern that often means fading momentum in uptrends.

The rejection at point D of the wedge shows sellers are in control, especially with the RSI below 50, indicating weakening bullish strength.

The focus is now on the $115,800–$114,900 zone, anchored by the 200-MA and the lower boundary of the channel. A break below this area could extend losses to $114,400 and $113,200, areas that have been buy zones.

Above $115,800, bulls can retest $117,300. Clearing that would open up $118,500 and $119,350 on the chart.

Momentum indicators are neutral. The 50-MA is above price, bearish short-term, but a bullish engulfing or hammer near support could trigger a reversal.

For traders, $115,800 is the line in the sand: above that and we can go long into $118K–$119K, below that and we risk a deeper pullback. In the bigger picture, higher lows across the structure still favor a push to $130,000 in the next few months.

Rate Cut, Politics and Market

The rate cut comes at a politically charged time. Trump has been pushing for faster easing and installed former White House adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed board this week. His failed bid to remove Governor Lisa Cook however shows ongoing tension over the central bank’s independence.

Trump has repeatedly called Jerome Powell “too late” on cuts, adding pressure to act now.The dot plot will be key, showing where policymakers see rates going for the rest of 2025. In June, they saw two cuts, but now traders are pricing in three if the labor market weakens more. For Bitcoin, today could be the trigger.

A dovish tone will boost risk and send BTC to resistance and potentially $130,000 by year end. A cautious Fed will have crypto consolidating near current levels until buyers get back in.

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