The Bitcoin price is trading at around $111,000 after gaining support near the $109,500 mark. On the fundamentals front, Global government bond markets are under pressure, with yields rising across the US, Europe, Japan, and the UK. The US 30-year Treasury is testing 5%, French long bonds are above 4% for the first time since 2011, and UK gilts are at 27-year highs.
In Japan, the 30-year yield has reached record levels, sparking warnings of a “collapse in G7 bond markets,” according to The Kobeissi Letter.
This dramatic rise in yields reflects a mix of inflationary concerns, soaring debt levels, and supply pressures. For Bitcoin, the implications are far-reaching. Historically, BTC has acted as both a risk asset and a hedge depending on the drivers behind yield spikes.
Bitcoin’s Historical Playbook
Past yield surges offer clues. During the 2013 taper tantrum, Bitcoin’s value surged from under $100 to over $1,000 as investors fled government debt. A similar pattern emerged in 2021, when yields rose amid inflation fears and Bitcoin surged to $65,000.
However, the story differs when central banks drive yields higher through aggressive tightening. In 2018, rising real bond returns drew capital away from Bitcoin, causing its value to fall by more than 80%.
The current cycle appears closer to 2013 and 2021. U.S. debt has ballooned by more than $1 trillion in just two months, reaching $37.3 trillion. At the same time, Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s holder retention rate climbing, signaling confidence in BTC as a hedge against currency debasement.
- U.S. debt rose to $37.3 trillion in September, up from $36.2 trillion in July.
- Bitcoin gained 4.2% over the past three days, mirroring the latest surge in the bond market.
- Holder retention rates point to a stronger “HODL” trend among long-term investors.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Short-Term Technical Analysis
Bitcoin has broken free from its descending channel, gaining momentum after weeks of sideways trading. Currently near $110,819, BTC is consolidating above its pivot at $110,181. The 50-EMA now serves as support, while the 200-EMA at $112,663 is the immediate ceiling to watch.
Momentum is improving, with the RSI at 56, indicating renewed demand without overextension. A decisive move above $112,600 could fuel rallies toward $115,600 and $117,500. On the downside, supports are placed at $107,407 and $105,215, offering traders defined risk levels.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Long-Term Technical Outlook
The bigger picture is bullish within Bitcoin’s rising channel from the 2022 lows. Price is consolidating at $110,587, the 50-week SMA is at $95,922 and strong support.
The RSI is 62, leaving room to run. If BTC breaks $134,487, Fibonacci extensions project to $171,055 and $231,241, with a stretch goal at $290,000.
Key long-term support is at $104,379, $89,096 and $74,732. As long as Bitcoin is above $95,000 the supercycle structure remains intact and we can see six figure milestones.
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