Bitcoin slipped below $110,500 on Saturday, down more than 2% in 24 hours, as investor confidence in a fourth-quarter rally waned. The caution stems from analyst PlanC’s argument that relying on past halving cycles to predict price peaks is statistically flawed.
PlanC compared it to the coin toss fallacy, warning traders that BTC’s history doesn’t guarantee a repeat. “There’s no statistical evidence for a Q4 peak,” he said, “market conditions have changed so much since previous cycles. Bitcoin ETF and corporate treasury holdings have changed the game, old cycle based forecasts are useless.”
This perspective has unsettled bullish sentiment, with investors now questioning whether BTC can surpass last month’s high of $124,128. Market surveys show nearly 70% of respondents expect a drop to $105,000 before a potential move higher.
- Analyst PlanC warns cycle data lacks statistical strength.
- Surveys show 70% of traders see $105,000 before new highs.
- Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption reshape old cycle patterns.
Weak Jobs Data Supports BTC
While sentiment around Q4 has cooled, macroeconomic conditions are offering support. The latest U.S. jobs report revealed softer-than-expected data, including weaker hiring, rising unemployment, and downward revisions to prior reports.
Markets reacted sharply: Treasury yields dropped, the dollar index fell 0.70% and expectations for a September rate cut skyrocketed. Easier monetary conditions historically benefit Bitcoin, which loves a weaker dollar and lower borrowing costs.
“Labor market weakness gives the Fed room to cut rates,” one strategist said, highlighting how this macro backdrop may reduce downside risks for BTC. While short-term caution remains, a dovish Fed could help steady Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Short- and Long-Term Technical Outlook
The Bitcoin price prediction is neutral, as indicated by the 4-hour chart, which shows BTC forming an ascending triangle with resistance at $113,400 and higher lows since late August.
The 50-SMA at $110,021 is supporting price action, and the 200-SMA at $112,606 is the pivot. RSI is at 50, showing consolidation with mild bullish divergence; momentum is stabilizing.
If BTC breaks above $113,400 on strong volume, upside targets at $115,400 and $117,150 come into play. Failure at resistance could drag prices back toward $108,770 support.
From a long-term view, BTC remains inside a rising weekly channel.
The next major resistance sits near $134,500, with Fibonacci levels projecting potential gains toward $171,000 and even $231,000 if momentum accelerates. Support between $95,000 and $100,000 should attract buyers, keeping the broader uptrend intact.
Presale Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) Combines BTC Security With Solana Speed
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself as the first Bitcoin-native Layer 2 powered by the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM). Its goal is to expand the BTC ecosystem by enabling lightning-fast, low-cost smart contracts, decentralized apps, and even meme coin creation.
By combining BTC’s unmatched security with Solana’s high-performance framework, the project opens the door to entirely new use cases, including seamless BTC bridging and scalable dApp development.
The team has put strong emphasis on trust and scalability, with the project audited by Consult to give investors confidence in its foundations.
Momentum is building quickly. The presale has already crossed $14.1 million, leaving only a limited allocation still available. At today’s stage, HYPER tokens are priced at just $0.012865—but that figure will increase as the presale progresses.
You can buy HYPER tokens on the official Bitcoin Hyper website using crypto or a bank card.
Click Here to Participate in the Presale
The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analyst Says Q4 Cycle Hype Ignores Statistics appeared first on Cryptonews.
