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David Pokima
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Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $75,980 as U.S. desks opened on Feb. 4, 2026, with traders anchoring downside risk to the 200-week EMA near $68,400 after four straight red monthly candles.
Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, framed the immediate trigger as $74,400 (the “April lows” referenced in his X post), then $70,000 as the next shelf “just above” the $69,000 prior ATH, before a deeper capitulation pocket at $55,700 to $58,200 that he tied to the average realized price band plus the 200-week MA.
“Breaking below that means we head to a bear market low target. The area to watch here $55.7k – $58.2k. That’s just between the average realised price of all coins & the 200w MA. That should be the bottom.”
Altcoin Sherpa posted the same macro magnet, calling a tag of the 200-week EMA “around 68k” “logical,” and timestamped the view on Feb. 4, 2026.
BitBull added a cycle template: when BTC loses the 100-week EMA, the price historically retests the 200-week EMA, and he put the retest marker at $68,000 with an “accumulating” framework once it prints.
ETF flow and positioning data suggest this pullback looks more like de-risking than a full-scale institutional exit. Over the past two weeks, the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen nearly $2.8 billion in net redemptions ($1.49B last week and $1.32B the week before), even as the group still holds around $100.38 billion in net assets, down from above $125 billion in mid-January.
BTC also briefly dipped to about $74,600, but has largely held the mid-$70Ks, keeping it just above a level many traders watch for forced deleveraging.
The Institutional Take
The 200-week band functions as a risk committee line because it compresses a four-year regime filter into a single weekly close.
If BTC trades at $75,000 but the market starts pricing a $68.4K tag, desks typically shift from “buy dips” to “sell rips” until the weekly candle either reclaims the 100-week structure or prints a clean test-and-hold at the 200-week zone, which is where systematic vol sellers and long-only allocators usually re-enter with size rather than clip bids in the mid-range.
