Key Takeaways:
- Coinbase has teased a major announcement scheduled for Dec. 17, with few details disclosed so far.
- Market speculation points to a possible entry into prediction markets, potentially in partnership with Kalshi.
- Coinbase’s access to US users could give it an edge in a sector that has struggled with liquidity.
- Recent backlash around the Monad token launch has made parts of the community more skeptical.
- Polymarket still leads the prediction markets space, but a Coinbase entry could reshape competition.
A major Coinbase announcement expected on Dec. 17 has raised more questions than answers. The company has shared very little so far. Coinbase has changed its avatar on X (formerly Twitter), which usually signals something bigger is coming. Rumors are now pointing toward prediction markets.
Coinbase is one of the largest centralized exchanges by trading volume, second only to Binance. It also has an important advantage. It can operate directly with US users. That remains difficult for many platforms because of regulation. In that sense, Coinbase has more freedom than most competitors.
This already puts Coinbase in direct competition with Binance. If it launches its own prediction markets platform, it could also compete with Polymarket.
Prediction markets have long struggled with liquidity. Volumes remain limited, especially outside major events. Many believe that access for US users could change that. More users usually mean deeper markets.
Coinbase also controls its own Layer 2 network, Base. Much of its infrastructure runs on it. In 2024, Base was one of the most profitable L2s. More recently, it has been overtaken by Binance’s opBNB across several metrics. Even here, the rivalry between the two exchanges is visible. Base now ranks second. It still sits ahead of Arbitrum (ARB).
With this update, Coinbase appears to be aiming for something bigger than a simple exchange role. The question is whether it can actually pull that off.
l‘It Will Benefit Crypto Users Least’
On the surface, the setup looks favorable for Coinbase. The platform benefits from access to US users. Expectations of a more crypto-friendly policy environment under Donald Trump also help. Some even expect changes at the Federal Reserve that could further support risk assets.
But recent events have complicated the picture.
The Monad (MON) token launch is a key example. Coinbase was the only platform that hosted the ICO. It was also a rare chance for US users to participate. Expectations were high. The outcome disappointed many. Around 50% of the token supply went to insiders. After launch, MON fell nearly 60% from its all-time high. Trading also opened below the pre-sale price.
That experience seems to have shaped how parts of the community now view Coinbase’s upcoming system update. One user pointed to a Coinbase report on altseason published in August. They also noted that many tokens listed under Coinbase Markets later lost most of their value:
Whatever this ‘system update’ is, one thing is certain: it will benefit crypto users least, and of them, Base users nothing at all. We know this for a fact because Coinbase Markets did everything they could to not support base coins last year. Now 99% of those coins are close to literally zero.
Is Coinbase Launching Prediction Markets?
Speculation around Coinbase entering prediction markets has been building since November. Screenshots of a possible interface began circulating on X. Around the same time, talk of a partnership with Kalshi started to spread.
Those reports were later supported by The Information, citing people familiar with the matter. In December, Bloomberg and CNBC also reported that Coinbase is working with Kalshi, again referencing unnamed sources.
Prediction markets have become one of the most discussed narratives in crypto. Polymarket currently leads the space. Interest in the platform has grown, partly due to expectations around a possible airdrop.
Polymarket does have one clear limitation. It is not available to US users. While access is planned and a waitlist exists, the restriction remains.
If Coinbase does launch its own prediction markets product, it could challenge Polymarket’s position. Notably, Coinbase appears to have chosen Kalshi, one of Polymarket’s main competitors, as its partner.
Still, early leaders in a niche are often written off too quickly. Similar arguments appear whenever new meme coin launchpads emerge. Volumes shift for a while, but Pump.Fun has repeatedly regained its top spot. Something similar could happen here. The Monad case remains a reminder that Coinbase’s attempts to expand beyond exchange services have not always gone smoothly.
The post Big Plans Ahead for Coinbase? Some Expect Disappointment After Monad appeared first on Cryptonews.
