- A self-described “reluctant bear” has thrown in the towel and bought stocks in recent weeks.
- Money manager Sebastien Page of T. Rowe Price said a surprisingly strong economy should lift stocks higher.
- Here’s why Page changed his view on the stock market and started buying equities again.
A self-described “reluctant bear” has thrown in the towel and started to buy stocks in recent weeks as the US economy continues to surprise to the upside.
Asset manager Sebastien Page of T. Rowe Price told CNBC on Thursday that he waited for a correction in stock prices to add exposure to equities, and the late-October pullback served as an opportune entry point to buy more stocks.
“We bought stocks. We closed our underweight [in stocks],” he said, adding that he purchased $3 billion worth of stocks in recent days and is now overweight small- and mid-cap stocks.
“Growth has been surprising on the upside significantly,” Page said, highlighting the economy’s continued resilience, with US GDP growing at a 4.9% clip in the third quarter. “I think [a] soft landing [in the economy] is the base case.”
The top three reasons why Page is not panicking when it comes to investing in the stock market, aside from the continued upside surprises in economic growth, is because of a surge in money market fund assets that hit record highs of $5.70 trillion last week.
That money could serve as fuel for the next stock market rally if yields fall and investors reconsider their cash allocations.
“There are $6 trillion dollars in money market funds right now. That is $2 trillion more than before the pandemic. And that is the big question. Will it move into markets? I don’t think that’s fully happened yet,” Page said.
Additionally, he believes that 5% interest rates were the “old normal” and aren’t at a restrictive enough level today that they should limit further gains in stock prices.
Despite his increasingly bullish view, Page said that relative to bonds, stocks still appear expensive.
“The market is reasonably valued, but compared to bonds, stocks are more expensive than they were before the sell-off of 2022. The equity risk premium is most compressed it’s been in 20 years… Cash yields are higher than earnings yields on stocks,” Page explained.
Sticky inflation also represents a risk to stocks, according to Page, which explains why he hasn’t yet gone all in on stocks relative to bonds.
“Now’s not the time to be overweight stocks by 10% to 20%, but now is not the time to panic and go all the way to cash either,” he said. “In the long run, stocks pay off.”
For Page to become a “convinced bull” and go from a neutral weighting towards stocks to an overweight weighting, he wants to see a sharp climax in selling.
“I’d love to see capitulation in the market. I’d like to see the VIX at 30. I’d like to see a panic, and that would be a great opportunity to actually overweight stock if the fundamentals are still good,” Page said.
With the VIX currently at just below 15, there’s no sign of any capitulation in the stock market yet.
