What a difference a month makes.
On October 6, Crypto Twitter was in a state of euphoria after Bitcoin surged to $126,198.07 — a new all-time high.
There was firm belief that “Uptober” would kick off the start of a face-melting rally that would draw retail and institutional investors into the space.
But the opposite turned out to be true. Bitcoin’s price fell 3.69% last month — the first October in the red in seven years, and only its third October loss since 2013.
Market watchers are nervously drawing parallels to 2018. BTC posted a loss of 3.8% that October, only to plunge by a stomach-churning 36.6% in November… one of the worst monthly declines on record.
Fast forward to now, and sentiment is overwhelmingly negative. Some on X have posted screenshots of their wallets — exposing millions of dollars in losses. Others are threatening to leave the industry altogether, or pile their cash into stocks.
Of course, some of these posts are probably tongue-in-cheek. Bitcoin has suffered pullbacks like this before, only to witness a dramatic rebound weeks later. But with the world’s biggest cryptocurrency now technically in a bear market (after falling 20% from its recent all-time high) the mood is far from celebratory.
Poring over Bitcoin’s charts, influencer Ted Pillows warned his 230,000 followers that the crypto markets are heading lower — adding:
“There’s a time to be bullish. Now is not that time.”
And as BTC battles to stay above $100,000, where it has successfully traded since May, others argue a prolonged return to five-figure territory is now inevitable. Some are trying to see the funny side, though. Douglas Boneparth wrote:
“On days like today, I’m glad I’m diversified across stocks, gold and Bitcoin because it allows me to lose money in three totally different ways.”
So… is the bull market officially over for Bitcoin? Have we now completed another four-year cycle? Or is this a temporary lull before the markets roar back? And crucially, if we are beginning a prolonged downturn, will institutional investors stick around or sell up? Cryptonews has asked two experts for their insights.
‘The $100,000 Mark is Crucial’
FXTM’s senior market analyst Lukman Otunuga told Cryptonews that it’s been a “rough and rocky” few weeks for Bitcoin — with sellers striking at every opportunity and cumulative outflows from BTC ETFs now exceeding $1 billion since October 29.
The crypto industry’s optimism as Donald Trump’s inauguration loomed now also seems to be a distant memory. While gold and the S&P 500 have clocked year-to-date returns of 52% and 15% respectively, Bitcoin’s lagging behind on just 8%. Otunuga warns a “solid move below $95,000” could lead to BTC’s first negative year since 2022.
“Despite the negative outlook in the short to medium-term, Bitcoin is no stranger to massive selloffs only to recover down the road. A return of risk appetite, helped by easing trade tensions and Fed cut bets, may bring bulls back into the game.”
According to Otunuga, BTC could be primed for a rebound if $100,000 proves to be a reliable support level. But if this psychologically significant threshold crumbles, the analyst believes this could open the door to $95,000 — “and potentially lower.”
‘Treasuries May Sell Up’
The Coin Bureau’s co-founder Nic Puckrin told Cryptonews that a sustained drop below $100,000 “is possible, but certainly not inevitable.”
“It’s just as possible that we’ve seen sub-$100,000 Bitcoin for the last time now. Even if we do see Bitcoin under $100,000 again, it’s likely that dip will be just as short-lived as the one earlier this week.”
Despite the doom and gloom on Crypto Twitter, Puckrin argues that OG Bitcoiners aren’t losing confidence — but “simply taking profits after holding for a long time.”
“There’s nothing wrong with that — they’ve made massive gains, so it’s natural they want to crystallize those to live their best lives. Bitcoin has already delivered on its promise for the OG investors. The problem is that new buyers haven’t swooped in to snap up the excess supply coming into the market because there’s just too much macro uncertainty. It’s not a loss of confidence in Bitcoin — it’s a loss of certainty about the future.”
While asset managers and pension views tend to have long-term investment horizons — meaning they will continue to hold on to Bitcoin even in the event of a bearish contraction — Puckrin believes some dumps are to be expected.
“Many digital asset treasuries will sell in a downturn, because they have raised funds under specific terms and will need to meet those obligations, regardless of the price of BTC.”
This could be the biggest threat on the horizon, especially if Bitcoin is dumped in large volumes. Selloffs breed selloffs — especially when they’re amplified by leverage — meaning things could get worse before they get better.
The post ‘Bitcoin’s Going Lower’: Experts Fearful as $100,000 on a Knife Edge appeared first on Cryptonews.
