When it comes to tariffs, Washington has no plan B.
That means import charges aren’t going anywhere, even after a federal appeals court on Friday ruled that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plan was illegal.
“Don’t lose sleep on interpreting what it means,” analysts at ING Bank wrote on Tuesday.
“The simple and straightforward way to view this is tariffs remain in place, and will remain in place going forward,” they added.
Even if the case reaches the Supreme Court and it upholds the lower court decision, investors should “continue to assume that the tariffs remain in place,” the ING analysts wrote.
That’s because the Trump administration is “all in on macro management via tariffs,” and can pivot to other laws — from national security provisions to balance-of-payments measures — to keep them alive, the analysts wrote.
Most importantly, they said Congress could step in with a law giving the executive branch more expansive tariff powers.
Grace Fan, a managing director of policy research at GlobalData.TS Lombard, echoed that view.
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“Trump will surely double down by tapping other tariff authorities, keeping trade war chaos ongoing in the next few months as tariff winners/losers shift,” she wrote in a note on Saturday.
Still, Fan said she expects a shift by late 2025.
“Our base case remains trade war de-escalation by end-2025, as electoral politics eclipse foreign policy as Trump’s top obsession in the runup to the Nov 2026 midterm elections,” she wrote.
That could create a more positive backdrop for US and global equities, even as doubts linger about America’s reindustrialization drive.
For bond markets, the story is trickier. Lower tariff revenues could widen the fiscal deficit just as investors fret about the Federal Reserve’s independence following Trump’s push to oust Governor Lisa Cook and his clashes with Chair Jerome Powell.
At the same time, any tariff rollback would ease pressure on consumer prices, which is why retailers — and US households — are watching closely.
For now, tariffs remain in place. The appeals court allowed them to stay through October 14 to give the Trump administration time to file an appeal with the Supreme Court.
