There could be about 740,000 more home health and personal care aides in 2034 than in 2024, a massive jump compared to other jobs.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics published new employment projections on Thursday, highlighting how industries and occupations could change over the next decade. Employment overall is projected to rise by 5 million from 2024 to 2034, with 13 occupations projected to have job growth of over 100,000.
The top 15 include a few healthcare positions, software developers, restaurant cooks, and a couple of managerial roles.
Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, isn’t surprised by the mix of jobs projected to grow the most because of demographic, technological, and labor force trends.
“Food service jobs are everywhere,” Stahle said. “Healthcare jobs are likely to grow as the population ages, and software developers are expected to grow as a result of increasing enthusiasm around AI technologies.”
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics said there will be a lot of new job opportunities for care aides due to the shift in long-term care services from nursing homes and similar places to home- and community-based places.
The top jobs vary in pay; software developers had a median annual wage of $133,080.
Meanwhile, the median annual wage for home health and personal care aides in 2024 was $34,900, less than the national median of $49,500. Stahle said fast food and counter workers and restaurant-based cooks have also tended to be low-paying jobs. Those food-related titles are expected to grow by over 200,000 jobs each.
Recent demographic shifts could complicate these projections. “While employers may be able to add those jobs in the coming years, they are likely to face an uphill battle to do so,” Stahle said. “Projected declines in immigration and labor force supply, in the face of growing demand for these jobs, are likely to place upward wage pressures on employers to attract and retain workers.”
The 15 jobs projected to grow the most vary in terms of the education needed, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Several of them don’t have a formal educational credential, such as stockers and order fillers. While registered nurses typically need a bachelor’s degree, nurse practitioners typically need a master’s degree. Several of the jobs that are expected to grow a lot are managers; the ones that made the top 15 typically need a bachelor’s.
