Rostov, one of Russia’s primary wheat-producing regions, is experiencing its second consecutive year of drought.
In contrast, Stavropol, another key wheat-growing area, anticipates a record harvest due to favorable weather conditions.
Forecasts suggest that Stavropol could surpass Rostov as the leading wheat-growing region, ensuring a consistent supply from the world’s largest exporter, according to a Reuters report.
Drought risks
Governor Yuri Slyusar has issued a warning that Rostov’s harvesting campaign, set to commence this month, could see a 20% reduction in this year’s crop compared to last year’s 10.1 million tons.
This would mark the lowest yield since 2015.
He said that a state of agricultural emergency has been declared in 10 districts, enabling state aid payments to farmers.
Despite milder frosts this spring, drought is now considered the primary risk. The limited rainfall in May failed to help the soil retain moisture.
Maxim Zolotaryov, an agronomist at Luch farm in Rostov’s Chertkov district was quoted in the report:
It’s another bad year for us. The seedlings have been affected by drought since last autumn. The wheat is weak. This year, it suffered from frost, and now the drought is finishing it off.
Bad weather severely impacted Chertkov in both 2024 and 2025. Last year, yields plummeted by 61% to 1.7 metric tons per hectare, significantly lower than the approximately 3.4 tons recorded in the United States.
Zolotaryov observed that the green plants in the dry land had shorter stems than typical for this time of year.
Though some farmers have tried alternative crops, they’ve ultimately returned to wheat due to its reliable export demand, he added.
Record harvest
Analysts, however, anticipate a plentiful harvest in Stavropol, located south of Rostov. This is attributed to significantly improved weather conditions, with rainfall 30% higher than last year.
Government forecasts anticipate a 4% increase in Russia’s grain harvest this year, reaching 135 million metric tons, up from 2024. The wheat harvest is projected at 90 million tons for the current year.
Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy said:
We expect a record harvest in Stavropol this year, it will become the leading region in terms of wheat production.
To surpass Rostov, Stavropol’s wheat harvest must exceed 8 million tons, according to a Reuters calculation. In 2024, Stavropol harvested 7.8 million tons.
Local agriculture officials attributed a portion of the increased rainfall to “cloud seeding” technology, which involves spraying clouds with silver iodide from aircraft.
Krasnodar, another leading wheat-growing region in Russia, harvested 9.9 million tons last year. While Governor Veniamin Kondratyev expressed hope in March for at least the same output this year, drought in parts of the region casts doubt on this projection.
Meanwhile, Russia’s northern regions are increasing agricultural output due to warming temperatures.
For instance, the Perm region, primarily industrial and located near the Urals Mountains, saw a 30% rise in wheat production in 2024.
Operational expenses
Russia’s farmers contend with a confluence of difficulties, including demanding weather, interest rates at their highest point since the early 2000s, and sanctions that restrict their access to new Western machinery and spare parts.
Alexei Shantaliy, a local administration official for farming in Chertkov, said that due to the increase in the key interest rate, loans had become very expensive, and that as of that day, every farmer was calculating their finances, capabilities, and the feasibility of acquiring new equipment.
Farmers also expressed concerns over increasing input costs like fertilisers and fuel. Reduced input usage in crop cultivation typically leads to lower yields.
Farmers indicated that demanding weather necessitates a more intensive deployment of machinery within brief operational windows, enabling swift sowing or harvesting when conditions are favorable.
Yet, farmers face significant challenges with aging machinery and frequent equipment breakdowns, primarily due to a scarcity of spare parts. This hinders their ability to act swiftly during crucial sowing and harvesting periods.
Alexander Plakhov, director of Luch farm, stated that farmers have experimented with other crops but ultimately decided to continue cultivating wheat due to its guaranteed export demand.
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