President Donald Trump’s negotiations to end the Ukraine war are going nowhere. Leaders from the US, Europe, and Ukraine met in Paris this week for peace talks. Russia did not participate and has signaled it’s in no rush to agree to a cease-fire.
Now, Trump’s top diplomat is signaling he could walk away from the table. It’s a classic dealmaking technique straight out of Trump’s 1987 book, “The Art of the Deal.”
“We’re not going to continue with this endeavor for weeks and months on end,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday after tense meetings with European and Ukrainian officials. “So we need to determine very quickly now, and I’m talking about a matter of days, whether or not this is doable in the next few weeks.”
“If it’s not possible,” Rubio added, “then I think the president is probably at a point where he’s going to say, ‘Well, we’re done.”
Trump, who campaigned on ending the Ukraine war quickly, wrote in his book to “know when to walk away from the table.”
“The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it,” he wrote. “That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have. Leverage is having something the other guy wants. Or better yet, needs. Or best of all, simply can’t do without.”
The book may be decades old, but it’s as relevant as ever to Trump’s negotiating strategies — at least according to some in his orbit.
“Many of you in the media clearly missed ‘The Art of the Deal,'” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters earlier this month in response to questions about Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs strategy. “You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here.”
Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Business Insider that “it is difficult to know how seriously to take Rubio’s suggestion that the United States is ready to ‘move on’ if progress on ending the war in Ukraine is not in the immediate offing,” because “the Trump administration’s position on many policy issues changes on an almost daily basis.”
“It remains unclear whether moving on means giving up on efforts to bring the war to a close, ending US support to Ukraine, abandoning the attempt to reset relations with Russia, or some combination of all three,” added Kupchan. “Clearly, the Trump administration is frustrated that its pledges to end the war are not panning out.”
Kupchan said Ukraine’s best hope lies in striking a minerals deal with the US; those talks are ongoing.. “Kyiv has a compelling interest in convincing Trump not to walk away from supporting Ukraine, and the minerals deal can help achieve that outcome. An agreement of some sort looks likely, although its terms are still in play,” he said.
Rubio’s ultimatum landed just as Vice President JD Vance, meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome, expressed optimism about ending the “very brutal war.” Rubio’s comments from Paris, where he presented a US peace framework that reportedly received an “encouraging reception,” painted a more urgent picture.
The Kremlin acknowledged “some progress” but has insisted any deal would hinge on protecting Russian interests. Rubio’s explicit “matter of days” deadline suggests Moscow’s pace isn’t matching Washington’s demands.
If the US does step back, the implications are stark. Without Washington wielding its unique leverage — the threat of tougher sanctions on Russia or cutting off Kyiv’s military aid pipeline — most observers believe the peace process would likely disintegrate.
Tom Wright, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former Biden administration official, called it “absolutely absurd” that the administration is about to throw in the towel on negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine war without even trying to put pressure on Russia. “Ukraine wants an immediate cease-fire. Putin’s maximalist objectives and desire to subjugate Ukraine are the main obstacles to peace,” Wright said.
Ian Bremmer, the founder and president of Eurasia Group, told BI that “US coordination on negotiations with Europe and Ukraine in Paris sends a clearer message to Putin that if he wants a deal with Trump (which has lots of long-term strategic advantages for the Kremlin), he’s going to have to accept a cease-fire. Your move, Putin.”
