- The Pentagon is developing AI-enabled satellite technology.
- AI satellites offer advantages amid intensifying competition in space.
- They could supercharge data analysis and help evade the consequences of a Chinese cyber-attack.
A vast network of military satellites belonging to the US has long underpinned its dominance in space. But China is challenging the US status as the space superpower, and its satellite system is in the crosshairs.
Defense News reported last month that the US Navy is moving forward with plans to build a network of fully autonomous satellites that are able to navigate independently without GPS or ground control.
Analysts say that AI could help the US stay ahead, providing its satellites with the capacity to evade the consequences of a potentially crippling attack, as well as more power to collect and analyze large amounts of data.
The race for satellite dominance
The stakes in the battle for satellite supremacy are high, Melanie Garson, an associate professor in International Conflict Resolution & International Security at University College London, told Business Insider.
The winner would control a vital aspect of space infrastructure, which would also provide an advantage in intelligence gathering and precision strikes in the event of a war.
AI “will provide additional capabilities for surveillance and espionage as well as being able to interfere with the other’s space assets through spectrum warfare or cyberattacks,” Garson said.
The US has hundreds of military satellites in orbit, with China and Russia not far behind.
If a war were to break out between the US and China, military experts say that China has the capability to do serious damage to US space-based assets through a range of anti-satellite, or ASAT, capabilities, including programming its satellites to attack others.
A CIA report that leaked in 2023 said China was focusing its efforts in the event of a war on hacking the systems used to control US satellite networks.
Systems confrontation and destruction warfare is believed to be a preferred Chinese military tactic for 21st-century warfare.
Crippling these systems would leave satellites unable to transfer communications and data, or even coordinate with each other, the report said.
AI could be the key
AI for satellites could be crucial to preserving US capabilities. Unlike satellites that require human input, autonomous satellites can operate independently, processing and analyzing data to make their own decisions.
The autonomy makes them less vulnerable to possible attacks on bases or communications networks or to being cut off from operators by electronic warfare like signal jamming, said Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project and a senior fellow in the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Decentralized decision-making may add resilience by decreasing the reliance on ground-based infrastructure,” Krista Langeland, deputy lead of the RAND Space Enterprise Initiative, told BI. “AI capabilities could also help with detection and characterization of an attack.”
Another advantage is that AI could help process vast amounts of data in space, and identify potentially hostile satellites more quickly.
“Space is huge,” Swope said, “so AI will help satellites better understand what’s happening around them and keep track of what other satellites are doing.”
“That could help US satellites maneuver to avoid accidental collisions but also stay clear of potentially hostile adversarial satellites,” he said.
A distant goal
The power of the technology to revolutionize US satellite technology and security is significant, Alison Grey, a satellites expert at PA Consulting, told BI.
“Ultimately, AI-enabled automation can enable a network to react and recover from various threats in space,” she said, “whether that’s from natural phenomena, anomalies in one’s own system, or potentially hostile activity.”
However, while the technology is already being applied in some military satellites, realizing its full potential is likely to be some way off.
Space Force’s former top acquisition official, Frank Calvelli, told an event last year that he expects satellites to be “significantly more autonomous” within the next 10 to 15 years.
Even so, efforts are intensifying to begin realizing its potential. Defense News said that the US Navy is researching a fully autonomous model, the Autosat, and wants to take the tests further.
“We’ve done a demo of this and proven out the principles and are looking for the next step,” Steven Meier, director of space technology at the Naval Research Laboratory, said at a recent summit in Virginia. “We want to get funding to actually build a system along these lines and launch it.”
