California faces a firestorm, not just on fires, but also on energy. The state government continues to push households to electrify while, at the same time, electricity prices skyrocket. The dual impact of increasing dependence on electricity and a 35 to 45% boost in electric bills since 2020 is particularly hard on poor families. Already squeezed, Californians now pay the highest gasoline prices in the country, ranging from 30 to 50% above the national average. Inflicting more pain at the pump is California’s Air Resources Board (CARB). While they may be well-intentioned, the Board’s Low-Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) disproportionately hurt poor households because these households spend over 11% of their income (not including some government benefits) on gasoline.
CARB’s stated mission is “to promote…public health…through [the] effective reduction of air pollutants…recognizing and considering effects on the economy.” (italics added) As “the lead agency for climate change programs” it’s also responsible for the State’s goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. To achieve these goals the Board wants to speed up the shift to electric vehicles.
CARB claims that its restrictive fuel standards will lead to a 90% reduction in carbon intensity of transportation fuels by 2045. It expects these efforts to eliminate over 500 million metric tons of CO2 emissions. That sounds impressive—until you look at data from China. The projected cumulative California emission reductions over this 20-year period amount to only two weeks (less than 5%) of China’s annual emissions. Sadly, California fires in 2020 wiped out all progress on carbon dioxide reduction over the previous 17 years. The current fires will likely wipe out a substantial amount of progress since 2020.
This is from David R. Henderson and Francois Melese, “California’s New Fuel Standards Hurt the Poor, with Little Environment Benefit,” Independent Institute, February 12, 2025. (First published in California Globe, February 11, 2025.)
Read the whole thing, which is not long.
