Wall Street bets Tesla’s 2025 sales will miss Elon Musk’s target

Today’s agenda: US-Colombia trade war; creating Silicon Valley’s British rival; what deporting 11mn immigrants means for America; and Nigeria’s delta drilling plan

Good morning. We start the week with news from Wall Street, where banks forecast Tesla’s vehicle sales will grow much more slowly this year than co-founder Elon Musk has forecast. Here’s what we know.

What are analysts saying? Tesla is poised to sell 2.07mn vehicles this year, up 16 per cent on 2024, according to analyst forecasts compiled by FactSet. That would be a rebound from last year, when the group reported its first drop since 2011, but it is well below the 20 to 30 per cent Musk projected in October and below the previous two years’ annual growth rate of about 40 per cent.

What’s behind the low growth estimate? The figures underscore the challenge Tesla faces from Donald Trump’s pledge to roll back Biden-era policies that favour electric vehicles. Last week, an executive order said the White House would consider “the elimination of unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions”. The electric-car maker also faces concerns about wider “pressures on the EV market, China competition [and] decelerating Cybertruck volumes”. Read the full report.

And here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Holocaust Memorial Day: World leaders gather in Poland for the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz death camp by Allied forces in the second world war.

• Economic data: Ifo publishes its German business climate index and Norway releases labour data.

• UK: Energy secretary Ed Miliband will be questioned by MPs on the government’s flagship net zero policy.

• Results: Ryanair and AT&T report, while Dr Martens has a trading update.

Five more top stories

1. The US and Colombia averted a possible trade war on Sunday night after the Latin American country’s leader agreed to grant entry to US military flights deporting migrants. The sides exchanged threats of tariffs, and Donald Trump and Gustavo Petro, a leftist former guerrilla, traded barbs on social media before the traditional allies managed to “overcome the impasse”.

• The Big Read: With approximately 11mn undocumented people in the US, a genuine mass deportation would have a wrenching impact on American society, its economy and its sense of self as a nation. 

2. Exclusive: The UK will fast-track a strategic plan to create a British rival to Silicon Valley, marking a return to political favour for a scheme that was shelved three years ago and signalling the Labour government’s focus on high-productivity areas in its push for growth. Science secretary Peter Kyle said: “The Oxford-Cambridge Arc is already an engine of prosperity, but we can go even further.”

3. International mediators resolved disagreements over fragile ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon late yesterday, after clashes involving the Israeli military and civilians threatened to undermine both accords. US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators secured a deal that includes the release of hostages from Gaza this week and permission for Palestinians to return to the north of the shattered territory today.

4. Exclusive: Investors offloaded a record amount of private equity stakes on the second-hand markets in 2024, as a prolonged dealmaking drought encouraged pension funds and buyout groups to seek other ways to cash in their investments. Read more about why secondary deals have boomed in recent years.

• UK profit warnings: One in five UK-listed companies sounded the alarm on profits in 2024, underlining the impact of rising costs.

5. Big businesses and national governments are heaping pressure on Brussels to curb its green agenda amid fierce debate about the impact of Trump’s deregulation drive on the EU. The latest call for reform came from Philippe Ducom, the Europe president of ExxonMobil, who called out “frivolous, excessive and expensive regulation”.

News in-depth

Nigeria is planning to resume oil production in one of the most environmentally devastated parts of the oil-rich Niger Delta after a three-decade halt. The plan, aimed at boosting economic growth, has ignited criticism from campaign and community groups, which accuse authorities of exploiting the region’s resources without accounting for environmental damage and loss of livelihoods. “There is blood in the oil of Ogoniland,” they say.

We’re also reading . . . 

Chart of the day

Nato is set to increase its informal target for defence spending from 2 per cent to 3 or 3.5 per cent, according to European officials. But Trump has told allies he wants 5 per cent, a figure now endorsed by several EU states including Lithuania, Estonia and Poland, which leads the alliance in spending more than 4 per cent.

Take a break from the news . . . 

From impressive novels about female rage and a relentless stalker, to an inventive tale set in brutal modern Britain — Suzi Feay shares her top picks for the best new debut fiction.