Will the Gaza ceasefire hold?

Today’s agenda: Biden warns of ‘oligarchy’; Hindenburg shuts down; Citi’s £1bn Canary Wharf refit; Big Read on peak oil in China; and has New York’s congestion pricing worked?

Good morning. After 15 months of war, Israel and Hamas have agreed a multi-stage ceasefire deal in Gaza, starting with an initial six-week stop to fighting beginning on Sunday. Here’s what to expect.

What’s in the first stage? The Israeli military will start to redeploy out of urban centres in Gaza to what Israel has described as “buffer zones” it will hold on the Palestinian side of the border. Israeli troops will leave the Netzarim corridor, which divides the strip’s north and south, as well as Gaza’s border with Egypt within 50 days.

Gazans will be allowed to return, and Israel is to allow 600 truckloads of humanitarian aid each day into the territory. Hamas is to release at least three hostages every seven days starting with three female captives this Sunday. For each civilian hostage freed, Israel has committed to releasing 30 Palestinians detained in Israeli jails.

Will the ceasefire hold? It’s possible fighting will resume after the initial six-week pause. Benjamin Netanyahu has said repeatedly that he is not willing to fully end the war until he has achieved “total victory” and the complete “destruction” of Hamas. The Israeli prime minister also faces political pressure from far-right allies who are against the deal.

Discussions over the deal’s second phase, to be held no later than the 16th day of the truce, could also be difficult. They would aim for a permanent ceasefire, the release of remaining hostages and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Hamas has demanded that high-category prisoners, including those with life sentences for murder and terrorism, be released in exchange for soldiers held hostage — a bitter pill for Israelis to swallow.

Our Middle East editor Andrew England has more on how the deal was reached with the incoming Trump administration’s help, and the challenges that remain for Gaza and the region.

Here’s what else we’ll be watching today:

• Economic data: Germany reports December inflation, while the UK releases November GDP estimates. The European Central Bank publishes minutes from its last rate-setting meeting in December.

• Starmer in Kyiv: Sir Keir Starmer will sign a symbolic “100-year partnership” treaty with Ukraine in his first visit to the country as UK prime minister.

• Companies: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America report results, while Deliveroo, Rathbones and Taylor Wimpey have trading updates.

Five more top stories

1. Joe Biden has warned that an “oligarchy is taking shape in America” that risks damaging democracy. Five days before he hands power to Donald Trump, the outgoing US president blasted an emerging “tech industrial complex” in a veiled attack on his successor’s allies, including Elon Musk. Here’s more from Biden’s farewell address.

• Tech giants: Meta and YouTube are set for a multibillion-dollar boost in revenues if TikTok is banned in the US on Sunday, said top advertising bosses.

2. US stocks roared to their best day since Trump’s election win after data showed underlying price pressures in the world’s largest economy eased and Wall Street banks posted strong quarterly results. The S&P 500 index closed 1.8 per cent higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite leapt 2.5 per cent, with banks among the biggest gainers.

• Hindenburg Research: Activist short seller Nathan Anderson, famous for his campaigns against Adani, Super Micro and Nikola, is shutting down his firm.

3. Exclusive: Trump could use the approval of cross-border deals to pressure foreign governments into aligning with US policy priorities, top dealmakers and investors have warned. One European banker said: “The people in this administration have no compunction about using every lever at their disposal to achieve their aims.”

• Nippon Steel: An anti-Japan tirade by the head of US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs is symptomatic of the abrasive environment brewing in the Trump era, writes Leo Lewis.

4. Exclusive: Ardian has raised the largest fund for buying stakes in ageing private equity funds and signalled it would be open to acquisitions as it grows its US business. The French alternative asset manager started fundraising for the $30bn vehicle in 2022. Read the full story.

• Pension funds: A typically staid corner of finance is dipping its toes into bitcoin, as interest grows with the arrival of a pro-crypto Trump administration.

5. Exclusive: Citigroup is on course to spend more than £1bn on the overhaul of its nearly 25-year-old Canary Wharf tower. When the bank launched the refit in 2022, it was reported that the cost would be more than £100mn. But people close to the project said that figure had never been realistic.

The Big Read

Foreign oil has underpinned China’s economic rise, as the country built the world’s largest car industry from scratch, new railways and air travel networks, and thousands of skyscrapers. But China’s thirst for crude may be reaching a peak sooner than expected, a development that has sent shockwaves through the oil market.

We’re also reading . . . 

• Greenland: Trump’s remarks may have generated hype, but the cold reality is the Arctic island has little to show from its decades of development, writes Richard Milne.

• Scholz’s legacy: We trace the German chancellor’s shortlived government in charts, including its failure to stop the nation’s economic decline.

• Trump and Europe: EU member states should not be in a hurry to appease the new US president, writes Ivan Krastev.

Chart of the day

New Yorkers are cruising much faster along Manhattan’s bridges and tunnels since their city implemented its long-debated congestion pricing plan this month, according to newly available traffic data. In one route from New Jersey, morning rush-hour speed has almost doubled.

Take a break from the news . . . 

As silken as the handkerchiefs Fagin’s boys pickpocket from the gentry, and as polished as the jewels he secretly stashes beneath the floor, Sir Matthew Bourne’s gorgeous staging of Oliver! oozes class as it high-kicks its way into the West End. Read Sarah Hemming’s five-star review.