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Moderna shares dropped as much as 22 per cent on Monday after the US biotech group’s sales forecasts disappointed investors.
The Boston-based company projected sales this year of $1.5bn-$2.5bn, down from a previous forecast of $2.5bn-$3.5bn and lower than some analyst estimates for $2.4bn-$2.9bn. It also said it expected to report revenues of $3bn-$3.1bn for 2024, at the lower end of previous guidance of $3bn-$3.5bn.
Moderna stock fell as low as $31.94, more than 90 per cent down from its peak in September 2021, when its Covid-19 shots were rolling out during the pandemic. The shares regained some ground, ending the day down 16.8 per cent at $35.15.
The projections come as the vaccine maker, which has missed a series of forecasts, grapples with falling sales as the market for Covid-19 jabs shrinks and it invests in new potential inoculations.
Jamey Mock, chief financial officer, told the Financial Times that the Covid-19 market was difficult to project, as few other products have gone from pandemic use to an “endemic” setting, where disease circulates but does not cause major outbreaks.
Mock said he thought demand for the vaccines was starting to stabilise and become “more durable and sizeable and then perhaps a little bit more predictable”.
He added that the company was focused on what it could control, by preserving its cash balance of about $9.5bn to invest in its portfolio.
Moderna also announced on Monday that it was expanding its cost-cutting efforts, aiming to reduce cash expenses by $1bn in 2025 and $500mn in 2026.
Stéphane Bancel, chief executive, said the company remained “focused on our three strategic priorities: driving sales growth, delivering up to 10 product approvals over the next three years and reducing costs across our business.”
Moderna said a trial of its vaccine for cytomegalovirus, a disease known as CMV that can cause birth defects in babies, had not met the efficacy criteria to stop the study early.
Analysts at Leerink Partners said this fitted with their “doubts on the study’s odds of success”.
The analysts added that investors were worried by a lack of clarity on Moderna’s combination vaccine for Covid-19 and flu. The company has filed for regulatory approval of the jab but did not include sales of the shot in its full-year guidance.
Leerink analysts warned that the “headwinds to growth prospects in 2025” put the “risk of future dilutive equity issuance on the table as a return to profitability looks increasingly remote”.
