- The latest US sanctions on Russia’s energy sector impact China and India, altering trade dynamics.
- The sanctions target Russian oil giants and tankers, raising oil prices to a four-month high.
- China and India may seek oil from other regions, while Russia might offer discounts.
The US’ latest move to hit Russia’s energy revenues is changing up the industry’s global trade flows.
On Friday, the US Treasury Department— together with the UK — slapped new sanctions against Russia’s key energy sector, including restrictions against oil giants Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas.
The Biden administration also imposed sanctions on 183 tankers associated with Russia’s oil trade. Last year, that group of ships transported about one-quarter of Russia’s energy exports, mostly crude oil, Goldman Sachs analysts estimated in a Sunday note.
Buyers from China and India — Russia’s top oil customers — are likely to be impacted by the new sanctions, changing the world’s energy trade dynamics.
Traders in China and India look to the Middle East, Americas
China will be impacted by the latest sanctions because most targeted tankers ship oil to the country, wrote Matthew Wright, the lead freight analyst at analytics firm Kpler, on Friday.
The sanctions, which would impact oil shipping, trading, and insurance, sent prices of the commodity up to a four-month high on Monday.
International benchmark Brent crude oil futures were 1.7% higher at $81.15 a barrel at 2.10 a.m. ET. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures were up 1.9% at $78 a barrel.
Both Brent and WTI oil futures are up 8% this year to date.
Traders told Reuters that China and India will be forced by the new sanctions to seek non-sanctioned oil from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas.
A Singapore-based trader told the news agency the sanctioned tankers shipped close to 900,000 barrels per day of Russian crude oil to China over the past 12 months and that these exports are going to “drop off a cliff.”
Even before this round of sanctions, oil traders in China and India have been anticipating higher curbs on Russian oil. They have increased crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Atlantic Basin, Bloomberg reported on Friday.
These latest developments illustrate the fast-changing pace of the world’s energy flow since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered sweeping sanctions against the energy giant.
They also come just days before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office. The incoming American leader has pledged to lift energy output and boost the US’ energy exports.
Russia is a top supplier of crude oil to both China and India.
Not a ‘game-changer’
The incoming US administration’s stance on the energy sector is one reason why recent oil price gains may not continue, wrote Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho’s head of macro research for Asia, excluding Japan.
Varathan said in a Monday note that while the latest oil sanctions against Russia are boosting the market, they are not a game-changer.
Not only is the potential of higher US supply expected to hold up the market, but demand from China — the world’s second-largest economy — has also slowed amid prolonged economic malaise.
Goldman Sachs analysts also cited the high spare capacity in oil as a factor that could weigh on prices.
Meanwhile, Russia is likely to pull out countermeasures to the US’ latest sanctions package.
“Russian oil can discount to incentivize continued shipping by a dynamic shadow fleet and continued purchases by price-sensitive buyers in new or existing destination countries, with both the ships and buyers being less sensitive to Western sanctions,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.
