Mike Johnson is heading toward a noon showdown over the fate of his speakership — even as President-elect Donald Trump doubled down on his support Friday morning.
The House will kick off the new Congress and move almost immediately to a vote for the speaker’s gavel, with Johnson likely still short of the votes to retain the gavel with just hours to go.
“Good luck today for Speaker Mike Johnson, a fine man of great ability, who is very close to having 100% support. A win for Mike today will be a big win for the Republican Party, and yet another acknowledgment of our 129 year most consequential Presidential Election!! – A BIG AFFIRMATION, INDEED. MAGA!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Johnson told reporters on Friday morning that he still believes he will win on the first ballot — a feat that would require him to hold the Republicans voting for another candidate to just Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has repeatedly pledged he won’t back Johnson.
But Johnson’s allies and critics are preparing for multiple rounds of ballots as he faces an entrenched group of hold-outs.
Johnson personally called and texted remaining GOP holdouts late into Thursday, per four Republicans who were granted anonymity to discuss the private conversations. The band of rebels is expected to meet again with Johnson on Friday morning.
The group of roughly a dozen members has a range of asks including commitments on slashing spending and angling for plum committee spots that would give them more power over what gets to the floor. And some have gone public with what deals he could cut to garner their votes — exactly the type of agreements that are already sparking early warnings of blowback from other corners of the conference.
“I do believe that Mike Johnson coming out and committing to Chip Roy being chairman of the Rules Committee would secure the vote on the first round with no significant battle,” Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) told former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) on “The Matt Gaetz Show.”
Roy, Massie and Reps. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) got seats on the Rules Committee as part of a deal cut with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy as he sought the speaker’s gavel. But the trio have emerged as a frequent roadblock for major GOP policy bills because they have enough combined sway on the panel to prevent any bill they all oppose from advancing unless Democrats step in.
Johnson allies are adamant that he won’t cut a deal to make Roy chair of the panel in order to secure his speakership, and centrists have also privately warned that he should generally avoid cutting the types of deals McCarthy did. Many of those deals ultimately paved the way for his ouster just months later.
Meanwhile, a group of conservatives and potential opposition votes against Johnson are circulating a document detailing what they describe as multiple failures of the 118th Congress.
The letter, which has no listed author, hits the talking points being shared by Johnson’s critics ahead of the speakership vote: How Republicans have repeatedly added to the nation’s debt, passed aid to Ukraine without the support of the majority of the GOP majority, and reauthorized the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. In particular, they took issue with how the latest government spending bill was handled.
It is a worrisome sign for Johnson, just hours ahead of the vote on the House floor, that also signals that despite messaging, the House GOP still has fractures heading into trifecta Republican-controlled government.
“The House must be organized to deliver on the historic mandate granted to President Trump and Republicans. It currently is not – as demonstrated many times over the last year and, most recently, the week before Christmas,” reads the letter, first obtained by POLITICO.The letter included a “detailed scorecard” that ranked House Republicans as having 4 “successes” and 26 “fails” since November 2023.
Among their listed successes: passing individual appropriations bills through the House, additional aid to Israel, and impeaching Department of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas.
In the failure column, they listed the various short-term spending patches that the House ultimately passed, and the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) following a damning House Ethics Committee report that they said was executed with many more Democrats.
Johnson’s headaches come even as Trump has repeatedly reiterated in recent days that he still supports the Louisiana Republican, who got battered by conservative criticism over last month’s short-term spending deal.
But Trump’s support hasn’t been enough to sway Johnson’s most adamant hold-outs — with Republicans predicting that at least a handful could oppose him on the first ballot and deprive him of a quick win for the gavel.
Massie argued Friday morning that “if he fails on the first round today, a better Speaker can be elected in a few hours or over the weekend.”
