If Republicans fail to elect a speaker Friday, the ensuing chaos could impact two of the most crucial moments enshrined in the Constitution: the Jan. 6 certification of the 2024 election, and — if things really go haywire — the Jan. 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.
Trump has endorsed Speaker Mike Johnson for another stint atop the House and has privately indicated that he doesn’t want Republicans delaying his priorities with a drawn-out speaker fight. But Johnson’s restive right flank is weighing opposing him anyway, and the House is essentially frozen until it elects a speaker. So if the election to lead the House is significantly delayed, it will have a cascading effect that could upend the transfer of power from Joe Biden to Trump in unpredictable ways.
“I don’t think Trump has any interest in messing with the [certification]. And so there’s going to be a lot of pressure to coordinate on someone without a protracted fight,” said Matthew Glassman, a former Hill staffer who now studies congressional procedure as a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University.
Constitutional and congressional experts have gamed out a handful of scenarios that could result, depending on how long the battle ensues. Here’s a look at some of the scenarios and details to watch should this fight enter uncharted territory:
A temporary speaker
If it becomes clear that Johnson can’t win the gavel, congressional experts say the least chaotic path for the House would be to elect a temporary or “caretaker” speaker.
“Jan. 6th serves as an obvious backstop to the speaker election. But not entirely,” Brendan Buck, a former aide to two GOP speakers, said Thursday. “They could just approve a resolution placing someone in the chair for the time-limited purpose of overseeing the joint session, and then go back to the speaker debate.”
This person would be tasked with swearing in all incoming House members, adopting procedures to govern the certification of the 2024 election and convening the House on Jan. 6 so lawmakers can meet to count the votes of the Electoral College, finalizing Trump’s victory.
After the election is certified, the caretaker speakership would end, facilitating the election of a permanent speaker. The biggest question about this path is whether Johnson himself would support it. His allies have been making the case that he must be elected speaker to ensure that Trump’s certification as president is not delayed. If he endorses a caretaker speakership, he instantly loses that leverage.
Convening the joint session
In presidential transition years, Congress uses its first day to adopt procedures to govern the Jan. 6 joint session to certify the election results. These procedures, which have traditionally been adopted by both the House and Senate, bind both chambers to the federal laws that govern the transfer of power.
A chaotic opening to the House’s 2025 session could threaten its ability to pass those procedures, creating yet another question mark around the certification of the election.
So far, leadership in both chambers have declined to comment on the status of their efforts to adopt procedures for the joint session, but if Johnson fails to corral enough votes to claim the speakership on Friday, the fate of these procedures could be the first bellwether of further procedural chaos on Jan. 6.
The wildest scenario
The most extreme, maximally chaotic outcome of this battle is a protracted speakership fight without a caretaker, one that stretches so deep into January it threatens the inauguration.
Most experts expect the House to get its act together by then, if only to avoid this precise scenario, but given the chamber’s chaos, it’s hard to count anything out.
It would be a power struggle with no precedent to guide the results. The letter of the Constitution says Biden’s term ends on Jan. 20 at noon, and if there’s no successor certified to take office, the job would fall to the first person in the presidential order of succession. Without a speaker, this would be the Senate President pro tempore, expected to be 91-year-old Chuck Grassley of Iowa, the most senior Republican member of the Senate.
It is hard to imagine congressional Republicans letting it get to this point, potentially denying Trump the triumphant return he craves and delaying — if not derailing — the start of his presidency. Much like the caretaker speakership, this could in effect be a caretaker presidency until the process facilitates Trump’s return to office.
