By Sarah Morland, Raul Cortes and Brendan O’Boyle
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Wednesday Mexico would retaliate if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump followed through with his proposed 25% across-the-board tariff, a move her government warned could kill 400,000 U.S. jobs.
“If there are U.S. tariffs, Mexico would also raise tariffs,” Sheinbaum said during her regular morning press conference, in her clearest statement yet that the country was preparing possible retaliatory trade measures against its top trade partner.
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, speaking alongside Sheinbaum, called for more regional cooperation and integration instead of a war of retaliatory import taxes.
“It’s a shot in the foot,” Ebrard said of Trump’s proposed tariffs, which appear to violate the USMCA trade deal between Mexico, Canada and the U.S.
Ebrard warned the tariffs would lead to massive U.S. job losses, lower growth and hit U.S. companies producing in Mexico by effectively doubling the taxes they paid. “The impact on companies is huge,” he said.
The proposed tariffs would hit the automotive sector’s top cross-border exporters especially hard, he added, namely Ford (NYSE:), General Motors (NYSE:) and Stellantis (NYSE:), and push up vehicle prices for consumers by thousands of dollars.
Mexico is the United States’ top trade partner and its automotive industry is the country’s most important manufacturing sector, exporting predominantly to the United States. It represents nearly 25% of all North American vehicle production.
Analysts at Barclays (LON:) said they estimate the proposed tariffs “could wipe out effectively all profits” from the Detroit three automakers.
“While it’s generally understood that a blanket 25% tariff on any vehicles or content from Mexico or Canada could be disruptive, investors underappreciate how disruptive this could be,” they wrote in a note on Tuesday.
Trump’s press team, as well as Ford and Stellantis, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. GM declined to comment.
Mexico’s automotive industry group AMIA said it would prepare for any possibility and wait to see what formal actions are taken.
The Institute of International Finance, a trade group for the global financial services industry, warned Mexico-U.S. relations would be “challenging” going forward.
“The imposition of tariffs, eventually leading to increased protectionism, and other policies affecting exchange rates and commodity prices could have significant implications for the region,” it said in a note.
The USMCA is up for review in 2026.
Katia Goya, director of international economics at Grupo Financiero Banorte (BMV:), said it was likely the three USMCA countries would seek wholesale renegotiation of the pact rather than just rubber-stamp it to continue in its current form.
“The effect of a trade conflict situation is that it will mean lower economic growth in the United States, higher unemployment and higher inflation,” Goya said.
Ebrard said USMCA trade had amounted to $1.78 trillion in the first nine months of this year.
“We can fragment and divide with tariffs,” Ebrard said. “Mexico does not want conflicts and divisions, but to build a stronger region.”
