Republican Nick Begich heads into the final two weeks of Alaska’s House race with a small but significant advantage over incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola in a top battleground race, according to new internal GOP polling obtained by POLITICO.
The poll, conducted by Cygnal on Oct. 14-16, found Begich leading Peltola 49.1 to 44.5 percent in the first round of voting under Alaska’s unique top-four, ranked-choice voting system. Two candidates who are less well known — Democrat Eric Hafner and Alaska Independence Party’s John Wayne Howe — take 2.4 percent and 4 percent, respectively.
Under the system, the first candidate to top the 50 percent threshold wins. In each round, the candidate receiving the fewest votes is eliminated and their voters are reassigned to their next choices until someone tops a majority. In the second round, Begich leads Peltola 49.6 to 45.5 percent, with Howe receiving an additional 4.8 percent of the vote.
That leads to a final round where Begich would top Peltola 52.1 percent to 47.9 percent.
Both parties have poured tens of millions into the Last Frontier as Democrats hope to hold onto the reddest turf in the country currently represented by a Democrat. Most major election prognosticators currently rate the contest as a tossup.
Peltola did get one significant piece of good news over the weekend when GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she hopes the incumbent wins reelection.
“I’ve appreciated the great work that she has done for the state, and I hope that she’s able to continue that,” Murkowski said after she made remarks to the Alaska Federation of Natives Convention, according to Alaska Public Media.
Peltola won after three rounds in the 2022 general election, defeating former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) by a 55 to 45 percent margin. Begich finished in third place during that contest.
The poll, conducted on behalf of Begich and the NRCC, surveyed 400 likely general election voters with a margin of error of 4.86 percentage points.
