Candidates: Rep. Mike Lawler (R) v. former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.)
Ad spending since Labor Day: $10.3 million for Democrats; $8 million for Republicans
Past results: Lawler won arguably the upset of the 2022 cycle when he took down then-DCCC Chair Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) by a narrow 50.3 to 49.7 percent margin — a little less than 2,000 votes.
2020 presidential result: 54.5 percent Biden; 44.4 percent Trump
Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican
Some background: Two familiar faces are pitted against one another in a race that once again has commanded national attention. Lawler stunned the political world by taking down Maloney in 2022, a symbolic blow to Democrats both in New York and nationally. Jones is seeking to return to the halls of Congress after getting drawn out of his seat in redistricting and unsuccessfully seeking a seat in Manhattan in the Democratic primary.
The state of play: Nonpartisan public polling has been sparse in the race, but a poll from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill in early October gave Lawler a razor-thin, one-point advantage of 45 percent to 44 percent over Jones.
The challenger outraised the incumbent $2.9 million to $1.6 million in the third quarter of 2024 — with Jones boasting $2.4 million in his campaign war chest heading into the final sprint compared to $1.9 million for Lawler. Major election forecasters either rate the contest as a pure toss-up or give Lawler a slight edge — the incumbent got a boost when the Cook Political Report moved the contest to “Lean Republican” on Friday.
Another aspect of the contest: A third-party candidate, Anthony Frascone of the Working Families Party, actually bested Jones in the primary and will appear on the ballot — under New York’s unique system where major candidates can run in both major and minor party primaries. Should the contest be as close as it was in 2022, even a modest vote haul from Frascone could hurt Jones.
Why you should care: Democrats see their path back to the House majority running squarely through a handful of districts like this one, where Republicans hold seats carried by President Joe Biden in 2020. There are more than 75,000 more registered Democrats in the district than Republicans, meaning Lawler will need to win over voters with pledges of bipartisanship to secure reelection. The contest is also a major test of the abilities of both parties to tie their opponents to the most extreme ideological wings of their parties.
More on the candidates: Lawler won his first race for Congress in 2022 and previously was deputy town supervisor in Orangetown, N.Y., and a senior adviser to the Westchester County executive. Jones worked for the Department of Justice during Barack Obama’s presidency and won his first — and only, to date — term in Congress back in 2020.
The issues: The contest is shaping up as a major local test for the potency of nationalized issues like the cost of living, southern border, public safety and support for law enforcement, and guarantee of reproductive rights.
An unexpected issue popped up when The New York Times reported in early October that Lawler wore blackface in college as part of paying “homage” to Michael Jackson. Lawler said that decision was “the sincerest form of flattery, a genuine homage to one of my childhood idols.” Democrats have also sought to tie Lawler to conservatives like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), while Republicans have aimed to link Jones to past progressive positions that he’s distanced himself from this campaign.
Every day POLITICO will highlight one race to watch. Yesterday’s: Maine’s 2nd.
