By Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said on Friday that the current inflation landscape argues against any imminent push toward easier monetary policy by the central bank.
“I believe it’s much too soon to think about cutting interest rates,” Logan said in a speech text prepared for delivery before a gathering at Duke University. Before lowering rates, “I will need to see more of the uncertainty resolved about which economic path we’re on. And, as always the [Federal Open Market Committee] should remain prepared to respond appropriately if inflation stops falling,” she said.
Logan said she continues to be concerned about inflation, which had been making progress falling back toward 2% before facing an uneven start to the year.
“I’m increasingly concerned about upside risk to the inflation outlook,” Logan said. “The key risk is not that inflation might rise – though monetary policymakers must always remain on guard against that outcome – but rather that inflation will stall out and fail to follow the forecast path all the way back to 2% in a timely way,” she said. The Fed must act to ensure it gets inflation back to 2%, she said.
Logan spoke in the wake of the release on Friday of much stronger-than-expected hiring data for March, which showed a robust job gain of 303,000 and a decline in the jobless rate to 3.8% from February’s 3.9%. The report helped bolster the case that the Fed faces no urgency to cut rates, which is the message central bank policymakers have been sending to markets in comments over recent days.
Logan, who is not currently a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, also said that when it comes to shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet she favors slowing the drawdown before halting it altogether.
“It will soon be appropriate for the FOMC to decide when to slow – not stop – the runoff of our asset holdings,” Logan said, adding “a slower but still meaningful pace will provide more time for banks and money market participants to redistribute liquidity and for the FOMC to assess liquidity conditions.”
