- Donald Trump is on track to romp in the Iowa Republican caucuses.
- A closely-watched poll shows the former president with an unprecedented lead at this stage in the race.
- The Iowa Republican caucuses are just weeks away.
Former President Donald Trump holds an unprecedented lead in Iowa just weeks before its first-in-the-nation caucuses, according to the latest edition of the most closely watched poll of the state.
According to the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, Trump has an overwhelming 32-point lead (51-19) over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis, once Trump’s best-positioned primary foe, is struggling to hold onto second place where former UN ambassador Nikki Haley is within three points, technically making that race too close to call given the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error.
The former president’s lead is all the more remarkable considering that much of Iowa’s Republican political establishment is behind DeSantis, including Gov. Kim Reynolds. According to the Register, Trump’s lead is the largest at this point in the race for a competitive GOP caucus.
“The field may have shrunk, but it may have made Donald Trump even stronger than he was,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the Iowa Poll, told The Des Moines Register. “I would call his lead commanding at this point. There’s not much benefit of fewer candidates for either Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley.”
Selzer is regarded as the “gold standard” of Iowa pollsters given her ability to come close to predicting the caucuses, which can be difficult given all the factors at play in the state, especially the potential number of first-time caucusgoers.
According to the poll, Trump’s lead is so massive that he’s ahead in every single demographic surveyed.
The former president leads with every age group, every type of resident (suburban, rural, or city), every income bracket, those who have a college degree or do not, those who are self-described evangelicals or not, and those who are self-described Republican caucusgoers or those will are independent for now.
Trump does best among those without a college degree and those who make less than $50,000 (61% each), foreshadowing a likely repeat of a key demographic that powered his successful 2016 primary run. The former president does even better with men 65 and older and men without a college degree (66% each).
Even more concerning for DeSantis, an earlier Iowa poll showed that he was tied with Trump among the total universe of likely Republican caucusgoers. This is no longer the case. Trump still leads when Iowans options first-choice, second-choice, and actively considering are all combined. The former president’s lead over DeSantis (76-67) narrows to nine points. Haley is the only other candidate over 50 percent (52) in this larger sample.
DeSantis has staked so much of his campaign’s success on Iowa. The fact that he is now losing ground despite having campaigned in each of the state’s 99 counties is a major warning sign for an already struggling campaign. No Republican in recent memory has won the GOP presidential nomination without winning Iowa or one of the three other early states.
Iowa’s Republican caucuses will be held on January 15.
The Iowa poll was conducted from December 2 to 7 with an overall sample of 3,733 registered voters winnowed down to a smaller group of 502 likely Republican caucusgoers. The margin of error of the overall likely caucusgoer sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results might not add up to 100% due to rounding.
