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The hype train surrounding Grand Theft Auto 6 has reached fever pitch, with many on Wall Street thinking it will be a “major catalyst” for its maker.
The release of the newest iteration in the series could generate “substantial enthusiasm” for Take Two (NASDAQ:TTWO), owner of GTA publisher Rockstar Games, according to Benchmark analyst Mike Hickey. He has a Buy rating and a $164 price target on the stock.
“The anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto Next is likely to boost TTWO’s growth significantly in fiscal years 2025 and 2026,” Hickey wrote in a note. (On Friday, Rockstar announced the trailer would be released on December 5, at 9 a.m. EST.)
Though sales estimates for the game are sparse, some have have speculated it could generate more than $1B in revenue in the first week and sell up to 14M copies at launch. For perspective, the highest grossing movie of all time, Avengers: Endgame, had a worldwide opening of $1.2B.
Hickey also said Grand Theft Auto Online Next — the online service that includes upgrades and existing content — could add as much as $1B in annual live service revenue and continue the tradition of the original online service, which boosted engagement for the past decade. (Rockstar is expected to release a downloadable content update later this month as part of its regular winter update.)
Take-Two (TTWO) did not respond to a request for comment for this story.
Benchmark’s Hickey believes Take-Two (TTWO) could be attractive as a takeover target, as Microsoft’s (MSFT) $69B acquisition Call of Duty maker Activision Blizzard could spur other companies to make deals.
The Benchmark analyst isn’t the only fan on Wall Street of the upcoming game. In October, Raymond James said to expect “big numbers” for the upcoming video game.
Last month, Deutsche Bank said the release is likely to be a financial boon for the company, as did investment firm Baird.
Other companies are also looking to cash in on the Grand Theft Auto hype train. This week, Netflix (NFLX) announced it will bring Grand Theft Auto: The Trilogy — The Definitive Edition to subscribers at no extra charge.
Investors have also taken notice of the hype surrounding Grand Theft Auto, as Take-Two (TTWO) shares have surged 53% year-to-date, trouncing the gains in the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq.
Take-Two (TTWO) recently updated its multi-year guidance, expecting slightly, “but not materially,” less than $8B in net bookings in fiscal 2025, compared to over $8B previously.
“While this guidance update means that estimates for [fiscal 2025] are coming down, it also demonstrates that, besides for some relatively minor shifts in timing, the bulk of Take-Two’s pipeline remains on track vs six months ago, which is a positive sign that the development process is going well,” Deutsche Bank analyst Ben Soff said in a recent note.
If the elation surrounding the next version of Grand Theft Auto translates into actual sales, Take-Two (TTWO) investors may need a real-life money cheat code.
