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Ahmed Barakat
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Bitcoin ETF demand returned on November 4 as Bitcoin recovered above $81,000, but Wall Street’s outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts remains uncertain. Goldman Sachs pushed its expected Fed rate cuts back by one quarter, citing persistent inflation and a labor market that remains resilient. The bank now expects reductions in December 2026 and March 2027.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $74.6 million in net inflows, ending three consecutive sessions of withdrawals totaling $1.16 billion. Fidelity’s FBTC led the recovery, while BlackRock’s IBIT continued losing capital.
Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund attracted approximately $236.7 million on November 4. Bitwise’s BITB added $15.2 million, while ARK Invest’s ARKB received $19.9 million.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust moved in the opposite direction, recording $201.2 million in outflows. The withdrawals extended IBIT’s four-session losing streak to $935 million. These mixed flows show that institutional demand has not returned uniformly across the market.
Bitcoin also recovered from a seven-week low near $75,600 during the November 3 election period, climbing back above $81,000 today. The rebound followed market stabilization after the U.S. midterm elections, although analysts cautioned against attributing the recovery to a single catalyst.
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Goldman Sachs Delays Fed Rate Cuts as Inflation Stays Sticky and Bitcoin ETF Rebounds
Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver its next two rate cuts in December 2026 and March 2027, pushing both reductions back by one quarter.
The revised forecast shows concerns that energy costs could keep core personal consumption expenditures inflation near 3% throughout the year. Goldman economist David Mericle said lower inflation readings and further labor market softening would likely be necessary for the Fed to cut rates before year-end.
The bank maintained its projected terminal rate range of 3% to 3.25%, while acknowledging that the Fed could decide against additional cuts if economic conditions remain strong.
Bank of America adopted an even more cautious outlook, removing its expected 2026 rate cuts and moving them into the third quarter of 2027. This shift creates a more challenging macro backdrop for Bitcoin, which often benefits when borrowing costs fall and liquidity conditions improve.
But the latest Bitcoin ETF inflows suggest some investors are still willing to increase exposure despite the delayed easing outlook. The contrast between returning fund demand and a more cautious Fed forecast gives Bitcoin traders two competing signals.
Institutional buying could help support prices if inflows continue, while elevated interest rates may limit the liquidity available for risk assets.
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