Author
Ahmed Barakat
Author
Share
Hyperliquid (HYPE) has gained 88% in roughly two months and is sitting just below $100, and Hyperliquid’s open interest just printed a record $8.8 billion. Those two facts are related, but not in the simple way the rally’s biggest fans want to believe.
The move toward the all-time high is backed by real revenue growth and an accelerating buyback program, not pure speculation. But record open interest also means a crowded derivatives book, and a crowded book cuts both ways if HYPE fails to hold above resistance.
Hyperliquid Recovery Meets Reality: Why the $100 Test Is Arriving Now
The timing isn’t random. Bitcoin recovered above $85,000 for the first time since January, and that shift in risk appetite pulled speculative capital back into perpetual markets broadly. Hyperliquid, as the dominant venue for that flow, absorbed a disproportionate share of it.
HYPE printed a September all-time high of $96 on the back of that inflow, extending its two-month gain to 88%. If the uptrend holds, the immediate technical targets sit at $102 and $118 – levels that would confirm a clean breakout rather than a rejection at the psychological ceiling
(Source – TradingView, HYPE USDT)
The macro backdrop matters here, too. Crude oil slipping below $90 would ease inflation pressure and could deepen the broader risk-on trade that’s already lifting crypto – a conditional tailwind, not a guarantee, but one worth watching alongside Bitcoin’s own resistance tests, where leverage has repeatedly amplified moves in both directions.
Hyperliquid Revenue and Buybacks Are Fueling the Rally
Hyperliquid directs most of its generated revenue into HYPE buybacks, the mechanism that actually connects protocol activity to the token price. That mechanism has been running hot.
Average daily revenue rose from about $1.5 million in Q2 to $3 million in Q3 – a straightforward doubling, not the more dramatic multiple sometimes attached to the quarter as a whole.
(Source – TokenTerminal, Hyperliquid Revenue)
The sharper move came mid-August, when daily revenue exceeded $5 million. That spike coincided with weekly buyback spending through the assistance fund jumping from roughly $5 million to $20 million – nearly a fourfold increase in a matter of weeks.
HYPE crossed $80 for the first time during that exact window. The sequencing is the tell: trading activity rose, revenue followed, buyback spending quadrupled, and price broke to a new level shortly after. That’s a demand-and-supply-reduction story, not just a momentum chase
Access Up to 200x Leverage on Bitcoin and Ethereum CFDs on PrimeXBT
Why Record Open Interest Raises the Downside Risk
Open interest measures the notional value of outstanding derivatives positions – not order-book depth, and not a dollar figure that translates one-to-one into potential losses.
At $8.8 billion, Hyperliquid’s OI has now surpassed the level seen at the previous bull-market peak last October, suggesting positioning is more aggressive today than it was at the last major top.
(Source – Coinalyze, Hyperliquid OI)
That matters because a heavily leveraged book amplifies moves in both directions. A breakout above $100 with rising open interest would suggest fresh conviction entering the market. A rejection at resistance, with the same open interest sitting on the books, sets up forced unwinds, where longs get liquidated into a falling market, accelerating the drop.
The $85-$88 range is a potential pullback area if the rally cools from here. That’s not a prediction of collapse – it’s the specific level where the bullish thesis would need to hold if $100 rejects on the first attempt.
What HYPE Needs to Prove Next
The evidence supports two things simultaneously: a genuine activity-driven rally and an elevated derivatives book that raises the stakes of the next move. Both are true. Neither cancels the other out.
Three things will determine which path plays out. Does HYPE clear and hold $100 on volume, or does it stall and roll over? Does open interest keep climbing alongside price, confirming fresh conviction, or does it plateau while price pushes higher, a divergence that often precedes a squeeze? And does the revenue base supporting Hyperliquid’s buyback program stay above the mid-August run rate, or does it fade back toward Q3 averages?
A failure at resistance would put the $85-$88 zone in play, and a crowded $8.8 billion open interest book means that move could happen fast if forced liquidations kick in. That’s a real conditional risk. It is not, based on what’s currently on the table, a confirmed crash – it’s a specific scenario with specific triggers, and traders watching the tape over the next few sessions will know which one they’re in well before the headlines catch up.
