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Bitcoin pushing back toward $86,000 has many retail traders convinced the bear market is dead and the bulls are back in full control. But Dan Krupka, founder of Connection Capital and former research head at Coin Bureau, sees something far uglier: the tail end of a textbook relief rally setting up a brutal liquidity trap approaching in the fourth quarter.
Back on January 1, Dan mapped out 2026’s rhythm for his subscribers: a short Q1 pop, a steep grind through Q2 into a summer bottom, and a relief leg into late Q3 and Q4. Crypto’s total market cap has round-tripped right back to its January baseline based on the schedule that Krupka laid out. The crowd is flipping aggressively bullish, but the underlying data suggests anyone chasing $86,000 might just be funding exit liquidity.
One Last Squeeze to $96,000
On the charts, Dan explains that the total crypto market cap is bumping against the monthly Bollinger Band baseline, the line that typically separates real bull markets from prolonged distribution. Dan expects a fakeout above this band rather than a clean rejection on the first hit:
Where Dan sees prices going in the short term are as follows:
- Bitcoin (BTC): Room to run another 20% to 30%, tagging the $96,000 zone where heavy profit-taking should stall the tape right in front of six figures.
- Ethereum (ETH): A squeeze into overhead supply between $3,300 and $3,500.
- Solana (SOL): A relief push up to $140–$160.
But explosive moves to the upside like that is often followed by sharp retracements. Pushing those targets stretches the weekly RSI back into overbought territory across the board. The harder prices rip from here, the more violent the snapback once momentum exhausts.
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The Dollar wrecking ball
While short-term technicals look energetic, the macro picture heading into late 2026 and early 2027 looks grim.
At the center sits the US Dollar Index (DXY). Sustained crypto runs demand a weak or falling greenback to supply global liquidity. We have the exact opposite. Persistent energy shortages in Europe and Asia keep the euro and yen pinned, driving global capital into the dollar. The DXY is pressing resistance at its monthly Bollinger Band. If it breaks out, risk assets will bleed.
And it isn’t just Dan who is holding this opinion. Mainstream Wall Street news reporting outlets have been warning of an overheated environment for months. Many analysts and market experts, including the legendary Warren Buffett, who famously sent a warning to investors in mid-September, and Michael Burry, who has been sounding the warning bells throughout 2026, are all reporting the same writing on the wall. And crypto will not be isolated from the fallout. A major market crash is not a matter of if, it is a matter of when, and Krupka feels strongly that the “when” will be Q4 of 2026.
Crypto prices are fundamentally driven by the crypto cycle and the macro cycle. From a crypto cycle perspective, the bear market bottom is in, and the new bull market is starting – that’s what everyone is seeing and saying.
However, from a macro cycle perspective, we appear to be in the final stages of the bull market and are likely to enter a bear market later this year or early next year. This is basically why crypto could still rally in the coming weeks, but is likely to crash to lower lows in the coming months.- Dan Krupka
Washington’s policy incentives point the same way. Economic frameworks floated by former Trump advisers, including Stephen Moore, suggest the US may tolerate or encourage a stronger dollar to pressure foreign debtors before negotiating trade accords.
Crypto has never run a structural bull market against a surging dollar. It won’t start now.
Don’t Get Caught in the Crash
Dan warns that if Bitcoin stretches toward $96,000 while weekly momentum flashes red and the DXY punches higher, the floor will drop out. A standard 50% retracement puts Bitcoin back between $30,000 and $40,000.
In the video and to his subscribers, Krupka emphasizes enjoying the green candles for now, but advises watching how the price reacts around $96,000, and not to mistake a mechanical bear market rally for an open macro runway. When this band snaps, traders who confused a short squeeze with a new supercycle are going to eat the downside.
