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Tim Hakki
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Jan van Eck hasn’t blinked yet: the CEO of the $100 billion asset manager VanEck, confirmed this week that Bitcoin is forming a macro market bottom, signaling the end of the post-halving correction.
His thesis rests on a specific structural claim about the 4-Year Cycle. While retail traders obsess over the post-halving chop, institutional data suggests the $60,000–$70,000 zone isn’t a distribution top. It’s a re-accumulation floor. That changes the entire trade setup for 2025.
- VanEck Macro Bottom: CEO Jan van Eck argues the 2022 bear market marked the cycle reset, positioning the current $60K floor as the base for a multi-year expansion phase.
- 4-Year Cycle vs. ETFs: Traditional Halving Analysis faces a new variable as spot ETFs create constant demand pressure that conflicts with historical miner-led supply shocks.
- BTC ETF Inflows: Institutional flows are diverging from price action, with billions buying the dip even as miner capitulation signals short-term stress.
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The VanEck “Macro Bottom” Thesis: A Bullish Call in a Choppy Market
Jan van Eck isn’t looking at the 15-minute chart. Speaking to CNBC, the CEO laid out a thesis that frames the last two years not as a random walk, but as a textbook completion of Bitcoin’s historical capitulation phase.
According to van Eck, the brutal drawdown of 2022 and the consolidation of 2023 established a Bitcoin Macro Bottom that remains intact despite recent volatility.
The argument is simple but contrarian. Most traders view the inability to break $73,000 as a failure. Van Eck views the resilience of the $60,000 level as proof of a new cycle floor, or “macro bottom”.
He notes that Bitcoin, often correlated with tech stocks, is behaving more like gold in its maturity phase. This isn’t just a risk-on asset anymore. It is a store of value being absorbed by the traditional financial plumbing.
Data from CryptoQuant supports this structural view. Long-term holder supply has remained relatively static around the $60,000 mark, suggesting that while tourists are leaving, the entities van Eck represents, funds, wealth managers, and family offices, are not selling.
Now, fear just hit a level seen only twice before, often a counter-signal for a cycle reset. If the macro bottom thesis holds, any dip below $60,000 is a deviation, not a trend change.
The 4-Year Halving Cycle: Dead or Just Different?
For a decade, the 4-Year Cycle was the gospel. Halving cuts supply. Miners sell less. Price goes up. But the 2024 Halving Analysis has proven far more complex. Bitcoin hit an all-time high before the April halving, a historic anomaly that broke the standard model.
The culprit is the ETF. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs introduced what analysts call a “continuous demand shock.”
In previous cycles, price action was dictated by miner capitulation and eventual supply squeezing. Now, daily BTC ETF Inflows or outflows can dwarf the daily production of miners by a factor of ten. This creates a tug-of-war between the old cycle mechanics and new Wall Street liquidity.
VanEck’s analysts have noted this shift. In a recent Bitcoin report, they highlight that while miner revenue is down, leading to a hashrate drop of 4% in late 2024, the price has not collapsed.
This divergence matters. If the 4-year cycle were purely mechanical, the miner stress post-halving should have crushed the price to $40,000. It didn’t. The ETF bid provided a floor.
However, the cycle isn’t dead; it’s elongated. Now, the market is waiting for the traditional post-halving supply shock to actually register on exchange balances. Until exchange reserves hit critical lows, the tension between the 4-year pattern and institutional flows will keep volatility high.
Institutional Reality Check: ETF Flows vs. Miner Capitulation
Institutional behavior currently tells two different stories. On one hand, miners are under extreme pressure. Profitability has plummeted post-halving, forcing some operators to sell inventory to cover electricity costs. Typically, this miner capitulation suppresses price for months. This aligns with the bearish argument: the sellers are exhausted, but they are still selling.
On the other hand, the BTC ETF Inflows paint a picture of relentless absorption. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have continued to see net positive weeks even during price dips.
This is a divergence from retail sentiment. When retail sells in fear, ETFs are buying in size. $1 billion flooded back into crypto ETFs recently, signaling that smart money sees current prices as a discount, not a danger.
This accumulation signals that the “macro bottom” Van Eck describes is being enforced by capital allocators, not chart patterns.
If ETF buyers continue to absorb miner supply, the supply shock will eventually trigger a repricing. But if institutional flows dry up while miners are still capitulating, the floor at $60,000 becomes precarious.
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