What counts as a performance?
That’s the question that both Kalshi and Polymarket had to confront on Sunday night, after rapper Cardi B appeared at the Super Bowl halftime show as part of Bad Bunny’s set.
Cardi B had no singing role, though she could clearly be seen dancing and mouthing words alongside singer Karol G and actors Pedro Pascal and Jessica Alba.
In layman’s terms, it was obviously more of a cameo than a full-on performance.
But with millions of dollars at stake — Polymarket bettors had wagered more than $4.4 million on whether she would perform — precision matters.
Ultimately, it came down to interpreting the rules.
Polymarket has decided that it did count as a performance, though that decision has been disputed and is set for a final review later this week.
According to Polymarket’s rules, the betting market would resolve to “Yes” simply if Cardi B “performs live and in person” during the show.
With Kalshi, things were less clear.
According to the full rules for the betting market, an appearance counts as a performance if the following three conditions are met:
- The performer appears onstage;
- They actually perform, including dancing, singing, DJ-ing, etc.;
- They are a scheduled performer or make a guest appearance.
By those criteria, Cardi B’s appearance would seem to count as a performance. She was on stage, she was dancing, and it was a guest appearance.
However, the rules also lay out criteria for what does not count as an appearance. One of those was: “Dancing or appearing on stage without singing/playing instruments.”
Due to the apparent lack of clarity, Kalshi invoked a rule that gives the platform sole discretion to settle contracts when there’s an ambiguity not addressed by the rules.
Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana told Business Insider in an email that the platform chose to settle the market at the last traded price, because Cardi B “was at the very least mouthing the words when dancing,” but it’s unclear “if she was singing,” and it’s “impossible to tell either way.”
That means those who bet on Kalshi that Cardi B would perform were paid out 26 cents per share, while those who bet that she wouldn’t were paid 74 cents per share.
Some commenters online and in the comments of Kalshi’s prediction market appeared to be furious with the move.
The episode underscores one potential pitfall for prediction markets, particularly as they pitch themselves as reliable sources for knowledge about future events.
