American shoppers are delivering a record-breaking Black Friday, with online spending already reaching $8.6 billion by early evening and projections suggesting the final tally could exceed initial forecasts, according to data from Adobe Analytics.
Black Friday online spending through 6:30 p.m. ET represents 9.4% growth compared to last year, slightly outpacing Adobe’s earlier forecast of 8.3% growth for the day.
Adobe now expects consumers will spend between $11.7 billion and $11.9 billion by the time Black Friday concludes, up from its earlier projection of $11.7 billion. This would set a new single-day record for online shopping. Adobe also found that more buyers are turning to AI tools and Buy Now Pay Later options to make purchases.
The data comes from analyzing commerce transactions across over 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, covering 100 million products across 18 categories.
“Adobe surveyed over 1,000 US consumers and nearly half believe the best deals this season will come on Black Friday, pushing many to hit buy on products before Cyber Monday,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, in a statement. “Given the strong spending so far today, we anticipate the final tally for online shopping on Black Friday will exceed our initial forecast.”
The strong Black Friday performance sets the stage for what Adobe expects to be a robust Cyber Week, the five-day period spanning Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. The company forecasts that period will account for 17.2% of the entire holiday season’s spending, totaling $43.7 billion, up 6.3% from last year.
Black Friday’s hottest products
The hottest sellers so far include televisions, the newly released Nintendo Switch 2, Apple AirPods 4, and the Oura Ring 4. Kitchen items, such as KitchenAid stand mixers and storage containers, have also been flying off virtual shelves, along with washers and dryers, bicycles, and basketball hoops.
Adobe’s survey found that 50% of respondents planned to shop for apparel and accessories online on Black Friday, followed by toys at 40% and computers and electronics at 36%.
The surge in spending has been fueled by discounts that ran deeper than analysts initially anticipated. Electronics saw the steepest markdowns at up to 29% off list prices, followed by toys at 28%, apparel at 25%, and televisions at 24%. Computers, appliances, furniture, and sporting goods all saw significant price cuts ranging from 19% to 23% off.
Buyers turn to AI and mobile shopping
Shoppers are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence for help navigating deals and finding the right products. AI-driven traffic to retail sites, measured by shoppers clicking on links from AI assistants, is expected to surge 600% compared to last year.
In Adobe’s survey, nearly half of respondents said they have used or plan to use AI for online shopping this season, primarily for finding deals, conducting product research, and getting recommendations.
The growing reliance on AI shopping tools comes as companies race to integrate the technology into the holiday shopping experience. Earlier this week, OpenAI introduced a shopping research feature in ChatGPT that builds personalized buyer’s guides by asking clarifying questions and surfacing information from across the web.
Mobile shopping continued its dominance, accounting for 58.6% of online sales so far and driving $5.1 billion in spending, a 11.3% year-over-year increase. That represents a higher mobile share than last year’s Black Friday, when phones and tablets accounted for 55% of purchases.
Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) services also experienced heightened activity, with the payment option expected to drive $761.8 million in Black Friday spending, representing an 11% increase from the previous year.
The vast majority of these installment purchases happen on mobile devices, which account for 82.4% of BNPL transactions this holiday season. Consumers are most likely to use the payment option for electronics, apparel, toys, and furniture.
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