Bitcoin’s recent 20% weekly slide has revived calls for a deeper downturn, yet one critical event — a counter-trend rally that has not emerged — may determine the entire direction of the cycle. Analyst Kevin, in his latest market breakdown, argues that the current selloff fits within a typical mid-cycle correction rather than a confirmed top.
He highlights several structural breaks that have fueled the bearish narrative. Bitcoin has slipped below the 2-day 200 EMA and SMA, breached the 50-week SMA, and lost the $98,000–$106,800 confluence zone, an area stacked with long-term Fibonacci markers. Cycle return profiles also resemble late-cycle readings, adding pressure to the outlook.
Kevin estimates a corrective window of 114–174 days, with a probable low forming between $70,000 and $80,000. What follows is the key moment: a counter-trend rally that will reveal whether the broader bull cycle is still intact. A reclaim of the $98,000–$106,800 zone would signal renewed upward momentum; rejection there would indicate a deeper bear phase.
Macro Backdrop Shows a Different Landscape
The analyst warns against comparing today’s environment with the 2021–22 market top. Then, inflation was accelerating, the Federal Reserve was raising rates aggressively, and quantitative tightening had just begun. The current backdrop stands in contrast:
- Inflation continues to cool
- The Fed is preparing to ease
- Quantitative tightening ends in December
- PMIs remain below 50, historically supportive for risk assets
Sentiment also does not resemble a cycle peak. Social metrics have dropped to multi-year lows, far from the euphoria that typically marks major tops.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook: BTC Stabilizes Inside a Downward Channel
On the chart, Bitcoin continues to trade inside a defined descending channel, with every rally capped by the upper boundary since October.
Price remains below both the 20-day and 200-day EMAs, and the latest bounce has not produced the strong candles associated with full reversals. RSI has lifted off oversold territory but still lacks bullish divergence.
The immediate levels to watch sit at $90,774 and $93,966, the 0.382 and 0.50 Fibonacci retracements. A breakout above the channel and a close above the 20-EMA would open a path toward $97,135 and potentially $107,358, aligning with the next major resistance cluster.
As volatility tightens, the coming rally, or failure to sustain one, will determine whether Bitcoin is preparing for a renewed advance or entering a broader downturn.
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