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Today’s agenda: Traders dump Casino debt; £48bn for England’s new towns; Israel’s Gaza takeover plan; Europe’s Maga populists; and are female experts more credible?
Good morning. Donald Trump has claimed that Russia and Ukraine will “immediately” begin negotiations on preparations for peace talks, but signalled that he was leaving Moscow and Kyiv to find a deal without the US as a broker. Here’s what we know.
What happened: In remarks after phone calls with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the US president said the “conditions” for a deal could only be agreed by the warring parties “because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of”. Trump also said the Vatican would be “very interested” in hosting the talks. After speaking to Putin, Trump also signalled to European leaders that he did not intend to apply additional pressure on Moscow while its talks with Kyiv were under way, according to people briefed on the conversation.
Why it matters: Trump’s comments indicate that Washington may be stepping back from its role as a mediator. Zelenskyy has warned that Putin would be “the only one who benefits” should the US distance itself from peace talks. One expert said the call was “a win for Putin”, adding that Russia had been allowed to continue the war without facing additional sanctions. Here’s more on what Trump’s remarks mean for the conflict.
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Opinion: The question of who Trump blames — if and when peace talks fail — is crucial, writes Gideon Rachman.
Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:
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Economic data: Germany issues April producer price index inflation rate data while the UK publishes its monthly insolvency figures.
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High-level meetings: G7 finance ministers and central bankers are in Canada for a three-day gathering. In Brussels, Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, chairs a meeting with the bloc’s foreign and defence ministers.
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Companies: Google holds its annual developer event in California, where it is expected to unveil new products. Shell holds its annual meeting, while Cranswick, SSP, Topps Tiles and Vodafone publish results. See our Week Ahead newsletter for the full list.
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Five more top stories
1. Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill risks sharply increasing US public debt, sparking alarm among investors and fuelling questions over how long the world will finance Washington’s largesse. The proposed legislation, which progressed after Moody’s stripped the US of its pristine triple-A credit rating on Friday, marks an “inflection point in the Treasury market”.
2. Poland’s stock market has emerged as one of the world’s top-performing bourses this year, up more than 28 per cent year to date. The rally has been helped by the country’s relatively insulated position from the global trade war and an expected boost from neighbouring Germany’s fiscal “bazooka”. Here’s what analysts are saying.
3. The value of French grocer Casino’s debt has slumped to deeply distressed levels, with traders now quoting a €1.4bn secured loan at 61 cents on the euro. The deep discount to face value suggests lenders are braced for the prospect of steep losses as fears grow that continued weak earnings could trigger a breach of its loan covenants next year.
4. The UK government’s plans for a dozen new towns in England in coming years could cost up to £48bn, according to a report examining the best sites to build the new wave of conurbations. Read the full report to find out which area was identified as the most favourable potential “trailblazer” location.
5. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel planned to take over all of Gaza as the country escalated its offensive in the war-torn enclave. The Israeli military yesterday told all residents of the southern city of Khan Younis to leave, demanding they move west to the so-called Al-Mawasi “humanitarian zone” ahead of what it called an “unprecedented attack” on the city.
Visual story
A rapidly ageing population and growing numbers of patients with chronic illnesses are placing ever greater demands on an already overstretched NHS. The UK government’s promised 10-year health plan aims to fix this, with ministers arguing that the answer lies in better use of technology and data in the world’s largest publicly funded health service.
We’re also reading . . .
Chart of the day
While markets cheered Trump’s deal with China, big US retailers are warning of higher prices later this year across a spectrum of goods, and small business owners say sales are already down as the chaos of “liberation day” creates a “ripple effect”. Will Trump’s tariff climbdown save the US from recession?
Take a break from the news
Today’s recommended read poses a very important question: do you let your dog sleep on your bed? For Hannah Shuckburgh, the answer is yes, and she explores why dogs make such wonderful bedfellows.
