Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market

Deming, Ong and Summers have a good overview of long-run and very recent changes in the US labor market. Using a measure of occupational titles the authors find:

The years spanning 1990-2017 were the most stable period in the history of the US labor market, going back nearly 150 years.

It’s a bit too early to distinguish an AI revolution from a COVID shock but the last four years look to be more disruptive than any since the 1970s and over a slightly longer period there are trends including a decline in retail, as consumers shift to online shopping and delivery, and a decline in office work, the latter especially suggesting an AI effect:

There were 850,000 fewer retail sales workers in the US in 2023 compared to 2013 even though the US economy added more than 19 million jobs over this period.

There are nearly five hundred thousand fewer secretaries and administrative assistants in the US labor force now than there were a decade ago. At the same time, management and business occupations have grown very rapidly. There were four million more managers and 3.5 million more business and financial operations jobs in the US in 2023 than there were in 2013.

Keep in mind that these changes are occurring as employment and wages overall are rising.

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