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Orpea SA reports Q3 results; updates FY23 outlook provides 2024 and beyond guidance

Outlook: Full-year 2023:

– Group revenue is expected to come in at around €5.2 billion, with an occupancy rate of 84.0% (versus 81.6% in 2022).

– Personnel costs are expected to represent 61.2% of revenue, versus 57.7% in the November 2022 Business Plan.

– Purchases and other costs are expected to represent 18.0% of revenue, versus 18.7% in the November 2022 Business Plan.

– Head office costs are expected to represent 7.1% of revenue, in line with the November 2022 Business Plan (updated to take account of the accounting reclassification of IT expenditure to the income statement).

– EBITDAR is expected to come out at around €710 million, at the lower end of the €705-€750 million range announced on 13 July.

The 2024-2025 period:

– The Group’s occupancy rate is expected to be 87.2% in 2024 (versus 84.0% in 2023) and 89.1% in 2025.

– Consolidated revenue would remain close to the amounts projected in the November 2022 Business Plan, at around €5.8 billion in 2024 and €6.1 billion in 2025.

Head office costs are expected to amount to 6.7% of revenue in 2025, versus 6.3% in the November 2022 Business Plan.

– EBITDAR is expected to come in at around €891 million in 2024, close to the EBITDAR figure projected for 2023 in the November 2022 Business Plan (€881 million); and at €1,055 million in 2025, close to the EBITDAR figure projected for 2024 in the November 2022 Business Plan (€1,053 million).

Accordingly, the outlook for 2026 is as follows:

  • Revenue of €6.4 billion, with a Group occupancy rate of 90.8%.
  • Personnel costs representing 57.8% of revenue, above the 2025 target of 56.4% set out in the November 2022 Business Plan.
  • EBITDAR of around €1.2 billion, in line with the 2025 target set out in the November 2022 Business Plan, with a margin of 19%.
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