Speaker Mike Johnson muscled his budget blueprint through committee. That will likely be the easy part.
Late Thursday the House Budget Committee approved a resolution in a party-line vote that will allow Republicans in the chamber to move forward on their one-bill strategy to pass President Donald Trump’s agenda on the border, energy and tax cuts. Conservatives had threatened a potential revolt over demands for more spending cuts but came around after leaders offered an amendment that would shrink the amount of tax cuts Republicans can pursue if they don’t cut $2 trillion in spending.
While that change appeased hard-liners for now, other serious fault lines remain. The most politically vulnerable Republicans are concerned the cuts will have to come out of Medicaid, food assistance and other programs for low-income Americans — a prospect they fear could cost them their seats. And other GOP members from high-tax blue states are worried there’s no room to adjust the SALT deduction.
Johnson’s razor-thin majority means he has almost no margin for error when he plans to bring the budget outlining broad parameters on President Donald Trump’s agenda to the floor later this month. Senate Republicans are throwing the speaker a lifeline by waiting to confirm Rep. Elise Stefanik as UN ambassador. But they’re still squeezing him by moving forward on their two-bill plan versus Johnson’s one.
The Senate could take a first procedural step on its budget blueprint as soon as Tuesday night — a timeline Majority Leader John Thune hasn’t set in stone but hasn’t ruled out, either.
Meanwhile, Johnson and Hakeem Jeffries are fanning the flames of the looming government funding fight. Johnson has accused Democrats of sending counter-offers they know are “not deliverable.” Jeffries, the minority leader, fired back in a Thursday press conference that Democrats are “engaging in good faith” and “House Republicans have chosen to walk away.”
The people actually at the negotiating table see it differently. Top Senate appropriator Susan Collins told reporters Thursday “that’s not true,” adding that “there are definitely talks going on.” Rep. Rosa DeLauro, House Democrats’ top appropriator, said Thursday that “we are close on a number of things.”
But time is running short. It’s a month before the shutdown deadline, and it typically takes lawmakers that long to close out negotiations on the dozen appropriations bills once they agree on “topline” spending levels.
GOP leaders are now privately considering a continuing resolution to fund the government at current levels through the end of the fiscal year, along with wildfire aid and other provisions, according to a person familiar with the matter who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole said Thursday morning he’d yet to talk to the speaker about a stopgap bill, and Collins told reporters that she was “hopeful” it wouldn’t come to that.
House Republicans would likely need some Democratic support if it does, given conservatives’ disdain for short-term spending measures. But DeLauro doesn’t seem keen to help there: “They’ll have to pass it,” DeLauro said of Republicans. “That’s the job of the majority.”
What else we’re watching next week:
- Nominations: The Senate will continue churning through Trump’s nominees, planning votes to confirm Howard Lutnick as Commerce secretary and advance Kash Patel as FBI director on Tuesday night. The Senate is also expected to vote to confirm Kelly Loeffler as SBA administrator next week, while Linda McMahon is set to get a committee vote on Thursday.
- Chavez-DeRemer: Former Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s committee hearing is scheduled for Wednesday after it was postponed this week. The Labor secretary nominee will likely need some Democratic votes to make it through the HELP Committee. But Democrats who initially supported her for her pro-labor positions may be less inclined as they continue to vote against most of Trump’s nominees in protest of federal spending cuts.
- Tax talks: Senate Republican leaders told Trump in a letter that they will oppose a short-term extension of tax cuts on Thursday, as the House discusses that option as a way to drive down costs. The senators said any extension of the tax cuts that lapse at the end of the year “must” be permanent — a potential headache as the two chambers battle over their one- vs. two-track plans.